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Friday, November 1, 2024

Jayson Tatum’s latest leap makes his MVP dream attainable

The Boston Celtics suffered their first loss of the 2024-25 campaign on Wednesday night, as they fell 135-132 at the hands of the Indiana Pacers in overtime. The fact that the game even made it to overtime was impressive, though, as the C’s trailed by as many as 24 points in the second half. A quick look at the box score shows that superstar forward Jayson Tatum had yet another big game for Boston as they nearly pulled off an improbable rally.

Even after Tatum led the Celtics to a championship last season, he still entered the new campaign with a renewed sense of energy. He was passed over for both Eastern Conference Finals MVP and Finals MVP in favor of Jaylen Brown, and then he spent a large portion of the 2024 Summer Olympics with Team USA watching from the bench thanks to some odd coaching decisions from Steve Kerr.

And while it’s only a five-game sample, Tatum has been on another planet so far this season, and he has shown virtually no signs of slowing down. After years of being on the fringe of the MVP race, it seems like Tatum’s candidacy has some real steam to it, and if he can keep putting up these big numbers while leading the C’s to wins, he could find himself firmly in the discussion for the award.

Why Jayson Tatum’s MVP candidacy finally feels legit

Jayson Tatum’s latest leap makes his MVP dream attainable
Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

At this point, Jayson Tatum is a bonafide superstar for the Celtics. He’s been an All-Star the past five seasons, and a first-team All-NBA member the past three. Along the way, he’s finished sixth, fourth, and sixth in the MVP race respectively. While Tatum had the privilege of being the best player on one of the top teams in the NBA, his numbers were always a step behind what the prime MVP candidates were putting up.

With all the star talent in Boston, Tatum’s numbers took a bit of a step back last season. His points per game went from 30.1 to 26.9 and his rebounds per game went from 8.8 to 8.1 His assists per game took a slight bump up, going from 4.6 to 4.9, and his efficiency from the field improved ever so slightly as well (46.6 percent to 47.1 percent.)

And yet, when you look at the numbers that guys like Nikola Jokic (26.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 9 APG, 58.3 FG%) or Luka Doncic (33.9 PPG, 9.8 APG, 9.2 RPG, 48.7 FG%) have been putting up, it felt almost disingenuous to include Tatum in the MVP discussion. It was clear that if he wanted to have a real shot at winning the award, he’d need to take his game to another level.

Given how consistently great he’s been, and the fact that he just led Boston to a championship, that suggestion is almost laughable. But through five games, Tatum has played like his hair is on fire. His numbers are closer to what they were in the 2022-23 campaign (30.2 PPG, 7 RPG, 5.2 APG, 48.6 FG%), and it seems like this sort of production is genuinely sustainable for him.

Boston is embracing their five-out offense even more this season, and a big part of that involves running the offense through Tatum more often, while having their elite guard duo of Derrick White and Jrue Holiday act more as perimeter shooters for the time being. After seeing Tatum struggle with his shooting throughout the postseason, doing this helps him create favorable matchups for himself and others on offense more frequently, and he’s taking full advantage of it so far.

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Whether it be driving to the rim, creating mismatches for himself in the midrange, or spraying down moving and catch-and-shoot threes, Tatum has been doing it all as a scorer. He’s fully leaning into Joe Mazzulla’s offense, as he’s taking four more threes per game than he was last season, thanks to the control he has on the offense, and the incredible ball movement this team has displayed early on.

It goes deeper than that, though. Tatum has always been an above average rebounder, and he should gradually bump his per game total there up as the season goes on. Being more involved in the offense is allowing him to flourish as a passer, which we saw him do time and again in the postseason when his shot had abandoned him. When teams key in on Tatum, he has the wherewithal to trust his teammates and move the ball to generate the best possible look.

Tatum isn’t going to going to average a near triple-double like Jokic or Doncic, but if he can continue to score 30 points a game on efficient shooting, while chipping in eight-to-nine rebounds and five-to-six assists per game, his MVP candidacy will have to be taken seriously. Rather than being a top five guy, he could end up being the top guy, period.

Given how high-powered Boston’s offense is, it’s fair to wonder whether or not Jayson Tatum will even have to score 30 points per night, and they certainly have enough talent to ride the hot hand as the season goes on. But for the first time in maybe his entire career, Tatum looks like a genuine MVP candidate, and if he can keep on posting these incredible numbers throughout the year, he could very well end up brushing another chip off his shoulder by winning this award.

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