It’s already time to get out the calculators. Halfway through the League phase on the European scene, PSG is on the edge of the precipice in the Champions League. With 4 points on the clock in 4 days, the capital club is even 25th in the standings and therefore temporarily eliminated.
But can the Parisians really miss the Top 24 and a place in the play-offs? With three trips (Bayern Munich, Salzburg, Stuttgart)and the complicated reception of Manchester City, Luis Enrique and his group do not have the calendar to their advantage. And this is verified in the statistics.
According to Opta, a specialist in the field and capable of simulating 50,000 situations until January 29, PSG even has 31.3% risk of walking out the door before even reaching the dams. Furthermore, the forecast model estimates almost zero (2.1%) the possibilities of qualifying directly for the round of 16 by securing a place in the Top 8, the club’s objective before the start of the competition.
66.6% chance of playing in the play-offs
It remains to validate a place among the Top 24 to compete in the play-offs, a sort of disguised round of 16. For this, PSG has a 66.6 chance of succeeding in its bet. The algorithm in fact considers that between 8 and 9 points could be enough for a team to finish between 9 and 24th place and thus be a jump-off. The Parisian club would then only be missing 4 or 5 additional units to qualify for the next round. Points that the club could obtain against more affordable opponents such as Salzburg or Stuttgart.
If the Parisians were to post their ticket for the play-offs, and not for the eighth, their ranking will also be of great importance in relation to the opponent they will have to face. As required by the reform of the Champions Leaguethe clubs classified from 9th to 16th place will in fact have the advantage of being seeded, to meet an opponent ranked between 17th to 24th place and to play the return match at home.