After being absolutely blown out in Week 9 in what thus far has been the worst loss of 2024, maybe of the Sean Payton era as a whole, the Denver Broncos fought back in Week 10 against the Kansas City Chiefs, coming just three points shy of ending the NFL’s long undefeated streak.
Yes, there are no moral victories in the NFL. Yes, the Broncos fell down the AFC standings and are now five games back in the AFC West. And yes, there are some legitimate questions about how high a ceiling the Broncos have with rookie Bo Nix running the show. But do you know what? If the season ended today, the Broncos would still be in the playoffs as a wild card team, and as a result, they need to take every game seriously moving forward.
Fortunately or not, depending on your take, the Broncos will have another serious showdown in Week 11, when they go head-to-head against another team with serious playoff aspirations, the Atlanta Falcons.
Now as of late, the Falcons have been a tough team to figure out, with their Week 2 win over the Philadelphia Eagles their lone win against a team with a winning record versus more, shall we say, easy efforts against the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Dallas Cowboys in in a game where Dak Prescott only played 47 out of 77 snaps. Are the Falcons legit contenders? Or are they, in the voice of Dave Grohl, pretenders? Well, in Week 11, fans will get to find out, as the Broncos are a team built on their defense, while the Falcons like to air it out with a prolific passing offense led by veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins.
1. Bo Nix throws for over 250 passing yards
When it comes to predicting a player’s success in 2024, few are as tricky to pin down from week to week as Bo Nix, the pride of Auburn and Oregon, who has started every single game for the Broncos in 2024. One week, he’s completing 70 percent of his passes for an efficient 206 yards and two touchdowns with a passer rating of 117.2, and in the next, he’ll be completing under 60 percent of his passes while making things so much harder than they need to be offensively.
And the weirdest part? It doesn’t even seem like Nix’s production necessarily is indicative of the team’s success, with his least-efficient game as a pro, completing 12-25 passing for 60 yards and a touchdown in Week 4 resulting in a win, and some of his better games, like in Week 10, resulting in a loss.
Fortunately for Nix, he’s facing off against a team in the Falcons who have allowed the eight-most passing yards so far this season at 2,234, with their 344 passing attempts allowed ranking 28th and their 17 touchdowns allowed ranking 17th across the league. Through ten weeks, the Falcons have only allowed three teams to throw for under 200 passing yards – holding a 2-1 record in those contests – and when they allow more than 200 yards through the air, their record dips down to 4-3.
Allowing an average of 6.3 net yards per attempt through the air in 2024, if Nix can just hit his career average of 32.4 attempts per game, he will pass over 200 yards with ease. But if the Broncos can exploit a Falcons defense that is without Mike Hughes, Dee Alford, and Antonio Hamilton Sr. through the air? Goodness, this could be another big, 250-plus game for Nix through the air.
2. The Broncos’ new-look rushing offense beats up on the Falcons
While the Falcons’ passing defense is below average by NFL standards, their rushing defense is just as bad, ranking 20th in the NFL in rushing yards, 22nd in rushing attempts, and 18th in rushing yards per attempt at 4.5.
With every single opposing team but one rushing for at least 100 yards on the Falcons through Week 10, with the lone exception being the New Orleans Saints, who finished their game just four yards short last season, the Broncos have a pretty good chance to hit things hard on the ground, especially with second-year wide receiver Marvin Mims now joining the backfield as a change-of-pace back.
Discussing the decision to give Mims a look at RB instead of his native wide receiver, Payton explained that the move isn’t full-time but instead a new wrinkle to elevate his offense further.
“One of the things that we are tasked to do sometimes is, ‘Are we missing anything from an attribution [standpoint]?’ When you watch him return, you see him put his foot in the ground and you see his speed,” Payton said via SI. “It was just creating a package that some weeks we can expand on.”
“Just trying to find ways to get him touches within the framework of what we do. I told him last week, you’re not changing positions but there are some things that I think he can help us with and we’ll try to look at it weekly. We’ve seen this before with different type of players,” Payton said. “Whether it’s been Deebo or [former NFL QB] Kordell [Stewart]. He gives us a different speed element. There’s certain running schemes that he would be very comfortable with.”
Will Mims become the next Samuel or even just a poor man’s Alvin Kamara, who shined under Payton in New Orleans? Fans will find out soon enough, but even if Mims only gets a few snaps, the Broncos’ rushing offense has been darn good regardless, with Javonte Williams leading a unit that has 1,171 yards on the season.
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3. The Broncos’ D regain a winning record over the Falcons.
So, if the Falcons’ defense isn’t very good and the Broncos’ offense should be able to exploit that, this game should be a wrap, right? It’s an easy W for Denver’s finest?
Potentially so, but only if the Broncos’ defense can hold up against one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
Hitting the ground running with Raheem Morris at head coach and Raheem Morris as his offensive coordinator, the Falcons have seemingly found a way to unlock all of the highly drafted playmakers that Arthur Smith ignored, with their passing offense ranking fifth and their rushing offense coming in close behind at 12th.
The Falcons’ defense, by contrast, is similarly successful in shutting down opposing offenses, with their passing defense ranking 10th and their rushing defense coming up close behind at seventh. They have yet to allow 300 passing yards in a single game in 2024, a mark Cousins has breezed past twice this season, and their rushing offense has been similarly effective, with half of their foes rushing for under 100 yards on the way to a 5-5 record.
Which side will win this offensive-defensive showdown? Well, in the end, it might just be the Falcons who get the better of the matchup, but when you consider the Broncos’ offense is better than the Falcons’ defense and will be able to score fairly regularly if things shake out their way, that advantage could prove to be the difference in the game. If the Broncos don’t get shut down early, they will almost certainly make this a game and potentially secure their sixth W of the year heading into the final third of the 2024 NFL season.