Texas entered the 2024 season with high expectations. In Steve Sarkisian’s fourth year at the helm, the Longhorns won their first Big 12 title since 2009 in their swan son season in the conference. They also made their first College Football Playoff appearance, although falling short of a national championship. Now, in their inaugural SEC season, Texas remains a strong contender, though there are growing concerns as the final stretch of the season approaches.
As Week 12 came to a close, the No. 3 Longhorns (9-1, 5-1 SEC) escaped a hard-fought victory over Arkansas (5-5, 3-4 SEC), though the game was closer than expected. Texas took a 10-0 lead into halftime but managed just 10 more points the rest of the way. Early in the fourth quarter, Arkansas closed the gap to three points, sending a wave of anxiety through the Longhorns’ fanbase.
Texas responded with a much-needed 75-yard, eight-play touchdown drive. Shortly after, the Razorbacks fumbled six plays into their next possession, effectively sealing the game for the Longhorns.
While a win is a win—especially in the chaotic landscape of college football and expanded conferences—questions remain about Texas’ performance down the stretch. With only two regular-season games remaining and a potential SEC Championship berth looming, this version of Texas football hasn’t looked as dominant as many anticipated over the past month.
Where was Texas’ offense against Arkansas?
With a roster full of elite skill position players, a veteran quarterback in Quinn Ewers, and Steve Sarkisian calling the plays, Texas was expected to dominate offensively in 2024. While that has been largely true, averaging 37 points per game (13th in the nation), their Week 12 performance against Arkansas didn’t reflect that firepower.
The Longhorns were held to a season-low 176 passing yards from Ewers and managed just 11 offensive possessions.
“When you just don’t have as many opportunities, you’ve got to try to maximize them when you get them,” Sarkisian said, per ESPN. “Him [Ewers] taking care of the football, converting on third downs, and what a play … on fourth down to kind of seal the game. I was proud of him for that.”
Texas converted only 4-of-15 third-down attempts but was a perfect 2-for-2 on fourth down, with a crucial fourth-down conversion helping secure the victory.
Arkansas’ game plan of limiting possessions and stifling the passing game nearly worked for the second time this season. Back in early October, the Razorbacks held Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava to just 158 yards and no touchdowns in an upset win. The difference for Texas was Ewers’ ability to find the end zone twice.
Still, concerns linger about Ewers’ performance. Since returning from an oblique injury in mid-September that sidelined him for three games, the veteran signal-caller hasn’t looked like the same player who began the season as one of college football’s most reliable quarterbacks.
Texas can’t afford another loss
At the backend of the CFP top 12, the SEC logjam is becoming increasingly difficult to untangle. With Tennessee falling to Georgia in Week 12, there are now four SEC teams with two conference losses following Texas then Texas A&M with only one conference loss apiece. While nothing is set in stone, it’s highly unlikely that six SEC teams will make the 12-team field by selection day—five might even be a stretch.
As the college football world awaits the CFP committee’s updated rankings on Tuesday following Georgia’s win over Tennessee, Texas finds itself in a precarious position. The Longhorns will likely remain at No. 3, with only one conference loss, but their margin for error has effectively vanished. A second loss at this stage of the season would almost certainly drop them out of the Top 12 entirely, given the committee’s tendency to penalize two-loss teams harshly. Unlike Georgia and Ole Miss, who took their second losses earlier in the season and had time to recover in the rankings, Texas wouldn’t have that luxury this late.
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Compounding the issue is Texas’ lack of a win over a current ranked opponent. Of the teams they’ve beaten, only Colorado State (7-3) and Vanderbilt (6-4) boast winning records, with the rest sitting at .500 or worse. Right now, the Longhorns’ No. 3 ranking is sustained almost entirely on the “eye test.” A late loss could erase that perception and end their playoff hopes entirely.
Texas A&M is a real problem for Texas; if not them, Georgia again
Texas A&M might not be where they ideally want to be as a program just yet under new head coach Mike Elko, but they’ve exceeded expectations compared to some preseason projections. Until their upset loss to South Carolina on Nov. 2, the Aggies hadn’t dropped an SEC game all season. Now, if A&M beats Auburn and Texas handles Kentucky in Week 13, the two programs are on a collision course for a highly anticipated showdown in the final week of the regular season with tons of implications at stake.
When the Longhorns and Aggies meet, it will mark their first clash since 2011, back when both were members of the Big 12. Texas won 27-25. The following year, Texas A&M set up shop in the SEC, leaving one of college football’s most heated rivalries in limbo.
Make no mistake—this renewed matchup will be brimming with intensity. The added challenge for Texas will be having to face a hostile Kyle Field crowd, which will make coming out with a win even more difficult.
But let’s say Texas manages to beat Texas A&M—then they’re likely headed for a rematch against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs man handled Texas in a 30-15 loss earlier this season in Austin. Beating a good team twice is never easy. But who is to say Texas is truly a good team?