After watching Saquon Barkley turn in one of the all-time greatest rushing games in NFL history against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football, Philadelphia Eagles fans will get to see how Nick Sirianni’s squad fares against the other big free agent running back signee of the 2024 offseason, Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens.
Soon, two unstoppable forces will clash in the middle of the gridiron, with the ultimate outcome of the game likely coming on the margins, like which kicker is able to overcome their yips more convincingly, which head coach makes the savviest adjustments, and which passing defense can make the most plays, the one ranked first overall – belonging to the Eagles – or the worst unit in the NFL.
Sounds fun, right? A potential Super Bowl preview on the first day of December? Most definitely so, unless you’re a fan of either team white-knuckling through the entire showdown, but in the end, good teams are judged by which good teams they beat, and in Week 13, whoever comes out of this game with the W will have one heck of a feather in their cap.
Based on the numbers, that team should be the Eagles, as the discrepancy in passing defenses should prove the difference in Week 13’s must-see showdown.
1. Saquon Barkley adds to his legend on the ground.
While the Philadelphia Eagles pride themselves on taking care of business in the trenches on both sides of the ball, the Ravens’ front seven might actually be better at defending the run than their counterparts up I-95. That’s right, through their first 12 games of the 2024 NFL season, the Ravens have only allowed 935 rushing yards on the ground versus 270 attempts, which rank second and third in the NFL despite having yet to take their bye week.
Now granted, some of the Ravens’ success against the run might actually have more to do with their issues against the pass, as they’ve been targeted more than any other team in the NFL and have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league at 3,332 – outpacing their own incredible passing offense by a full 374 yards. But it might also be because Eric DeCosta has built a stout anchor in the middle of his defense in the form of Nnamdi Madubuike, Travis Jones, and Broderick Washington, who clog up holes so the players around them can attack the quarterback as Zach Orr sees fit.
Asked if that unit could get even more firepower in the middle in the form of Michael Pierce, who has been on IR with a calf injury, Harbaugh gave reporters a vote of optimism during his Wednesday media session, as he did return to practice during the week.
“We’re hoping. We have our fingers crossed that [Michael Pierce] could be ready this week. We’ll have to see,”
In Week 4, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to slow down the Eagles’ rushing offense with stout play up front by Vita Vea and company, with Barkley recording just 25 yards on nine of his carries in a game that looked much better thanks to a 59 yard run to even out his stats. Will the Ravens be able to do the same, forcing Philadelphia to beat them through the air instead of on the ground? Potentially so, even if that hasn’t proven to be the best plan in 2024.
2. Jalen Hurts cuts up the Ravens’ defense for over 250 yards
Ever since the Eagles committed to winning games on the ground to a borderline comical degree, averaging the most rushing attempts versus the fewest passing attempts in the NFL on the season, opposing fans have taken shots at Jalen Hurts’ production.
That’s right, after averaging 33 passing attempts per game over the first four games of the season, putting up 930 yards, four touchdowns, and four picks in September, Hurts’ average throws-per-game are way down, to 21.85, to be exact. And yet, despite averaging over 11 fewer throws on average since the bye, Hurts’ production has taken a disproportionately smaller hit, going from 232.5 from Weeks 1-4 to 206.57 from Week 6 on.
Now granted, maybe this is the byproduct of opposing teams playing heavy boxes, which has freed up AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to feast on the outside to the tune of 727 and 516 yards, respectively. But it could also be because the Eagles simply haven’t had to throw the ball as much when Hurts, Barkley, Kenneth Gainwell, and company are running wild on the ground.
And in Week 13, Hurts may just prove he can sling it still, as he’s going up against a passing defense that has allowed an average of 277.6 yards through the air, including five games with more than 300 passing yards allowed.
Assuming this is a showcase of offensive firepower, which it frankly should be, the Eagles will need to hit some big shots down the field to keep the game close or to put a dagger through the Ravens’ tell-tale heart to keep their chances alive nevermore, which could lead to Hurts’ first 250-plus yard passing game since Week 6.
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3. A big game from Derrick Henry can’t stop the Eagles
Of all the matchups in Week 13 that could change the game for better or worse, how the Eagles are able to slow down or not slow down Derrick Henry could prove the difference between a win and a loss.
Yes, Lamar Jackson is an absolute beast, leading the league in passing yards while picking up more yards on the ground than all but 20 players in the NFL, but at this point, his production is almost expected. Sure, teams like the Steelers have still given him fits in 2024, and his own occasional bouts with ineffective play have played no small part in the Ravens’ overall record. But there’s a reason why Jackson is a serious favorite to win the MVP in 2024: he’s that good.
If the Eagles go all-in on playing a light box, with their linebackers tasked with splitting the field and keeping number 8 in front of them at all times, they might be able to limit his scrambling, but that would almost certainly lead to more gains across the middle of the field and a big game by Henry between the tackles.
Playing strong up front and limiting the designed run game, of which the Ravens rank second in both attempts and yards, however, might give Philadelphia a better chance of making Baltimore one-dimensional, with Jackson then forced to beat the best-passing defense in the NFL with a receiving corps that lacks a true WR1.
If the Eagles can make that happen, clearly winning the rushing battle while watching Hurts throw the ball for his first 250-plus yard performance since September, this feels like a game Philadelphia should win, proving to any doubters left that they are legit. And even if they lose? Well, the NFC East has been a mess in 2024, so they should still win the division with ease on the way to Sirianni’s fourth-straight playoff berth as head coach.