The Miami Dolphins travel to Lambeau Field this Thursday to take on the Packers, in a Thanksgiving showdown between two teams looking to finish the season strong and make the playoffs. Sportsbooks favor Green Bay in this one as the Packers sit at 3 to 3.5-point favorites.
The over/under for the game is between 47.5 and 48 at most major sportsbooks. Let’s get into my expert Dolphins vs. Packers predictions and best bets for Thanksgiving night.
Dolphins vs. Packers predictions and best bets
- Packers ML: -175 at DraftKings
- Jordan Love Over 0.5 Interceptions: -128 at FanDuel
- Tucker Kraft Over 31.5 Receiving Yards: -113 at FanDuel
The Packers host the Dolphins in what should be an exciting game between two explosive offenses in a game that serves as the NFL’s Thanksgiving night cap. However, at Lambeau Field in late November, this game favors Green Bay.
The Dolphins have struggled to win games in cold weather environments. With Miami’s season on the line, laying the points can be intimidating, but rolling with the Packers’ moneyline should be a safe wager.
Jordan Love impressed with his efficient play against the San Francisco 49ers last week. It was his first game without an interception this season. The chances he repeats that feat in back-to-back games are low.
This will be a cold weather environment, against an underrated Dolphins’ defense that has been generating pressure recently. I expect Love to make some mistakes that end up with the ball in the hands of a Dolphins’ defender before the game ends.
While Miami’s pass defense has been impressive, tight ends have proven to be a go-to option for opposing offenses. In fact, the Dolphins have allowed an opposing tight end to surpass this 31.5-yard receiving line in each of their last five games.
Dolphins vs. Packers moneyline odds analysis
Why Packers could win as the favorite
Best odds: -175 at DraftKings
An 8-3 record wouldn’t leave you in third place in your division in most seasons. However, the NFC North has been stellar this year.
Despite being without Jordan Love for multiple games this season, the Packers have remained one of the best teams in the league. Now, on Thursday night, they’ll have the difficult task of beating the surging Dolphins.
The temperature at kickoff is expected to be 26 degrees, and the Dolphins don’t play well in cold weather. Tua Tagovailoa has yet to win a game as the starter when the temperature at kickoff is 40 degrees or colder.
Still, Green Bay can’t bank on that stat to get the victory alone. Love must continue to play clean football, and the offense must find ways to produce against a defensive unit that ranks in the top 10 against the run and pass.
Miami, despite its three-game winning streak, has struggled against tight ends in that span. I look for Tucker Kraft to be involved in the Thanksgiving game plan and play a huge factor in whether the Packers celebrate a victory Thursday night.
Why Dolphins could win as the underdog
Best odds: +150 at BetMGM
The Miami Dolphins were 2-6 when November began, and their season looked to be headed in a disastrous direction. Miami has responded by ripping off three straight victories. The Dolphins now look to close out November 4-1 and get back to .500 for the first time since Week 2.
The obvious reason for the turnaround is the return of QB Tua Tagovailoa. However, the whole team has started to play more confidently in the past few weeks now that they have their QB back making plays.
The Dolphins will have to force Green Bay to make mistakes. Jordan Love has been inconsistent this season. Love is tied with Patrick Mahomes for the second-most INTs in the entire NFL (11). The momentum could quickly turn if Miami’s pass defense can get a pick or two.
Offensively, the team still has work to do. Tyreek Hill has not been as effective as expected since Tagovailoa’s return from injury (just one play of 20+ yards). Hill must create explosive opportunities to open up the offense against a staunch Packers defense.