Edmonton Oilers’ home ice struggles are real and they’re spectacular

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What’s old is new again. For the third season in a row the Edmonton Oilers have gotten off to a miserable start  in the “friendly confines” of Rogers Place.

• In 2022-23, the Oil posted a 4-6-0 record in their first 10 home games, scoring 35 goals while allowing 37.
• In 2023-24, it was 0-4-1 through the first 5 at Rogers, with 10 for, 19 against. Note: there was a home win in there, over the Flames at Commonwealth Stadium. So if you prefer, 1-4-1 through 6 home games, with 15 for, 21 against. Either way, not good.
• Now in 2024-25, a 4-6-1 mark through 11, with 27 goals scored, 38 against.

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Dig in a little deeper in the current campaign and things only get worse. Only ONCE in eleven home games have the visitors left town without a point! That happened when the Oilers thumped the feeble Pittsburgh Penguins 4-0 four weeks ago. In regulation, the club has gone 1-6-4 on home ice; only a trio of overtime wins against lower-tier teams has put a few layers of layers of lipstick on the pig that is their record in regulation.

All six of the regulation losses have been by 2+ goals, one of them a tight game with a late empty-netter, the rest decided early. So far the Oilers are 0-5-1 at home against teams currently in a playoff position, scoring just 8 goals and allowing 25 in those games. Shut out twice in the process.

It’s not getting any better, either. Recently the Oil had a run of three straight home games where the visitors secured at least one standings point in the last three (3) minutes of regulation. They allowed the game-winner (and then an empty netter) in the 60th minute vs. Vegas, then were twice burned for a tying tally in the 58th minute by the Islanders and Predators.

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That string of late disappointments ended on Thursday night when the Oil fell meekly and much earlier to Minnesota Wild in a game much more one-sided than the 5-3 final score. The Oilers opened the scoring with an undeserved goal in the first half-minute of play, then closed it in the last half-minute a.k.a. “garbage time”. In between times the Wild scored five goals that counted and a couple more that got waved off.

There were mitigating factors, including key injuries and a tough schedule that had the Oilers playing their third game in four nights in three different cities. Some pundits call this a “scheduled loss”.  Other pundits might have come to the same expectation simply based on the opponent; the Wild have now won 11 of their last 13 over the Oilers including 5 of their last 7 in Edmonton. Every last one of them decided in regulation. Kryptonite.

There was plenty of bad hockey on display by the home club. Forwards repeatedly passing from the offensive slot to the perimeter, defencemen coughing up pucks in the defensive slot, the goaltender not bailing anybody out with a save.

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Coach Kris Knoblauch certainly noticed, and cleared his throat in the post-game scrum. The soft-spoken bench boss chose his words carefully, but didn’t mince them.

• “In the defensive zone, not being able to close things out, and losing battles around the net. All the goals were 5-10 feet away from the blue paint. I don’t think we did enough to get there [offensively], and defensively we didn’t do a good enough job boxing out. We lucked out on the one goal that was offside, but they had a couple of opportunities there, and even when they pushed Skinner into the net [the other disallowed goal], that shouldn’t happen. A couple of the goals, we just have to be better around there… Overall, we gotta find ways to score goals. You need skill to do that, but you also need some grit and go hard to the net. We obviously have some incredibly skilled players who can make those plays, and when you’re playing with those guys and see them doing it, sometimes players get a case of mistaken identity and try that extra pass and play on the perimeter rather than shoot for a rebound and get to the net.”

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Here’s perhaps the most egregious example, though there was plenty of competion for that epithet. Oilers play chase in the d-zone, a rebound burps out into the slot, all three forwards skate north without first securing the puck, then both defencemen make weak clearances directly to opponents’ sticks. Bam.

I know! Let’s all blame the goalie!

Asked specifically about the play of netminder Stu Skinner, Knoblauch replied:

• “He’s not playing the level he was last year. Since I got here, I thought he was one of the top goaltenders, and if he had a bad game it was turned around the next night… For a goalie to play well, it’s got to be predictable. We have to be more predictable for him. What kind of shots are we giving up, where are they, take away the high danger shots. Tonight, that’s not a predictable game for a goaltender to turn his game around.”

So a reasoned defence of his ‘tender, though the very first remark was pointed enough.

Not much rest for the wicked before the OIlers host another playoff-calibre squad in the New York Rangers on Saturday night. It’ll be their 6th game in 10 days, though the first not to involve travel. That kind of pace takes a toll on any team, perhaps especially so for a squad which on Thursday featured a dozen skaters in their 30s including four of 34+. Some heavy legs among them, it appeared.

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The Oilers enter that game with the 28th best home record in the NHL, a putrid .409 points percentage. That’s far off the pace of a mean points rate of ~.584 for home teams over the past 2+ seasons (visiting teams round to .525 over that same span). Edmonton’s 1 regulation win is tied with Pittsburgh for for 30th; below them the winless Islanders have played just 7 home contests. Their 2.27 goals per game ranks 31st, ahead only of injury-riddled St. Louis. Goals against of 3.45 is not a lot better, ranking 27th.

Woeful performance for any team really, never mind one that went to the Stanley Cup Finals a year ago and is — or should I say, was — broadly favoured to do likewise if not better this season.

I’m old enough to remember the last time(s) the Oilers repeated as Cup finalists; let’s just say the process did not involve rolling out the red carpet for visiting teams, even playoff-calibre ones, at Northlands Coliseum. Out-of-province squads used to call Alberta road trips “Death Valley” back in the days that the Oilers and Flames won four straight Presidents’ Trophies between them for regular-season domination. Most frequent outcome for the touring teams was zero points for the two games combined. Whereas nowadays a visit to Edmonton alone is very likely to bear fruit.

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Silver lining?

In each of the past two seasons, the Oilers ultimately got their act together, seriously so a year ago when they completely turned around that 1-4-1 start under Jay Woodcroft. The coaching change came at exactly that point. With Kris Knoblauch at the helm over their last 35 home games, they posted a league-best 27-5-3=.814  mark, 23 of those wins in regulation. The home side scored 4.40 goals per game and allowed 2.43 over that span, ranking first, third and first in goals for, against and differential.

Trouble is, this team isn’t that team, a fact becoming more apparent by the week. This year’s poor run at home has gone on nearly twice as long, without much sign of domination of any opponent never mind a playoff-calibre one.

The other positive is in the “underlying numbers”, or “flat-out lying numbers” as I’ve taken to calling them. The Oilers have outshot 9 of their 11 opponents, by healthy enough margins to rank second, fourth and second in SF, SA and SD; indeed the raw per-game numbers remain very comparable to last season’s long run. But the percentages have not been their friend at either end of the rink, and some of the reasons for that can be observed by eye better than by number. It comes down to execution, or lack thereof.

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Kris Knoblauch seems to have a good handle on the challenges. He solved this issue a year ago, and he’s still behind the wheel. Does he have the right cards to play to do it again?

In the meantime, the Oil Country faithful are being sorely tested. Especially the paying fans who have left the building disappointed, and in some cases early, on way too many nights. It’s half past high time to turn that around.

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