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Grain exports from Ukraine are likely to fall further in 2023

AMA market expert Christian Gessl described the situation with regard to the food supply on Friday as “dramatic”. Both parties to the conflict, both Ukraine and Russia, are important players on the world market.

The War in the Ukraine restricts the grain exports of the important export country is currently falling significantly. That should also change their position on the world market. Is the estimated proportion of Ukraine According to an analysis by Agrarmarkt Austria (AMA), the global wheat and maize exports in 2021/22 were still nine and twelve percent respectively, but this could shrink to five percent each in the coming financial year.

AMA market expert Christian Gessl described the situation with regard to the food supply on Friday as “dramatic”. Both parties to the conflict are like that, both the Ukraine and Russia, important players on the world market. According to the AMA, the world supply balance, i.e. the relation between production and consumption, is still balanced in the 2021/2022 marketing year. According to current forecasts, however, this could change in the coming year, especially since global demand is increasing by one percent annually, according to Gessl.

Estimated deficit of 25 million tons

That will be appreciated Grain-Export deficit of Ukraine currently around 25 million tons. The importance of the Ukraine also with data from the US Department of Agriculture, according to which the country falls among the largest exporting nations in the world for corn (rank 4) and wheat (rank 5). Depends on Ukrainian grain exports are in particular countries from North Africa and the Near and Middle East. Austria imports almost none at all Grain from the Ukraine.

In order to supply the deficit regions, Gessl expects the European Union in particular to increase its exports. The harvest forecast is also positive in Russia. How much Russian Grain but in view of the geopolitical situation, he cannot say whether it will reach the world market. In addition, China plays a much more important role than the country is given credit for. So it is not only about the largest wheat producer in the world, but also about the nation with the largest stocks, which are not available for the world market.

“The forecasts at the moment are based on the possibility of supplying the deficit areas, despite this war situation,” said Gessl at the grain harvest-Press conference of the AMA on Friday in Vienna. For food production in the Ukraine but there is no sign of relaxation. “We also see what the Ukraine concerns that three years of production are currently being affected very, very negatively.” The other exporting countries are therefore required to intercept possible failures.

(APA)

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