The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes host the No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers this weekend in what could be one of the most impact games of this regular season. With Big Ten title chances at stake, both programs will carry plenty of pressure into kickoff this Saturday.
Sportsbooks favor the Buckeyes in this one as Ohio State is currently 10 to 10.5-point favorites depending on platform. The over/under for the game is 46.5 to 47.5.
Indiana vs. Ohio State predictions and best bets
- Over 26.5 Total 1st Half Points: -120 at DraftKings
- Indiana Over 2.5 1st Quarter Points: -145 at DraftKings
- Both Teams to Score 15+ Points: -205 at FanDuel
Offensively, Indiana and Ohio State have been better first-half teams this season. The Hoosiers have scored at least 14 or more in the first half of each game this season. The Buckeyes have put up more first-half points than in the second half in eight of their ten games. Both coaching staffs will look to take control of this game early, so expect a lot of points – early.
The Hoosiers will be tested like never before against Ohio State’s top-ranked defense. However, with their first-half success and heavy scrutiny from the national media, I expect them to start fast. While I expect the Buckeyes to win, look for the Hoosiers to put together an early scoring drive. They’ll be motivated to be sharp after a week of hearing the national media doubt them.
While there are indeed questions about Indiana’s legitimacy, the offense is still plenty capable of scoring points. Kurtis Rourke will likely be an NFL quarterback, and other pieces like Justice Ellison and Elijah Sarratt help out a lot, too.
Both offenses are plenty capable of creating points in this one, and despite the defensive talent, I like the chances for both squads to surpass the 15-point line in this one to prove both belong in the College Football Playoff conversation.
Indiana vs. Ohio State moneyline odds analysis
Why Ohio State could win as the favorite
Best odds: -375 at FanDuel
The sportsbooks have a lot of confidence in Ohio State. They’re the odds on betting favorite to win the National Championship, and for good reason. The Buckeyes are likely trotting out a roster that will send around 15 players to the NFL this offseason.
Against an Indiana team that has been undefeated to this point, there is still a significant gap on paper between the quality of each roster. While that doesn’t mean the Buckeyes will cruise to an easy win, it’s the reason the odds stacked against IU.
Ohio State needs to exploit that talent difference in order to win. The Buckeyes’ defensive line needs get into the backfield and make Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke uncomfortable as a passer.
Offensively, OSU will need to win in the trenches to find splash plays for RBs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, while giving QB Will Howard time to find his star receiving trio downfield.
The Hoosiers have performed very well defensively this season, but have yet to match up with a team of Ohio State’s quality. The Buckeyes will win if their star players show up and exploit the talent gap that exists.
Why Indiana could win as the underdog
Best odds: +325 at bet365
Last winter, new IU coach Curt Cignetti responded to a question at his introductory press conference about the challenge of selling recruits on Indiana football by saying, “It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me.”
At the time, no one knew just how quickly he would back that statement up. The coach arrived from James Madison and immediately went to work crafting an impressive roster. Now, this Saturday, he and the Hoosiers can prove just how capable this roster really is.
For Indiana, the best way to exploit the Buckeyes is to generate pressure against a depleted offensive line. Ohio State has already lost its starting left tackle this season, but its starting center, Seth McLaughlin, tore his Achilles tendon in practice this week. This is devastating news for a team that has already struggled with protection.
Mikail Kamara and James Carpenter are two key defensive linemen who will be looking to capitalize on the struggling unit. If they can pressure Will Howard, or shut down the OSU rushing attack, this one will become a lot more interesting.
Offensively, former Ohio Bobcats star Kurtis Rourke returns to the state where he started his college career and has a chance to score the biggest win of his team’s season. If Rourke can remain poised, then an Indiana win is certainly in the cards.