Get set for an exciting NFL non-conference matchup when the Jacksonville Jaguars travel north to Ford Field for a matchup with the Detroit Lions.
Detroit is the hottest team in football and is a -13-point favorite to send Jacksonville to its fourth consecutive loss. Read on as I break down this matchup and share my best Jaguars vs. Lions predictions and free picks for NFL Week 11.
Jaguars vs. Lions predictions and best bets
- Detroit Lions -13 (-112 at DraftKings)
- Jameson Williams Over 42.5 receiving yards (-113 at Caesars)
- Jared Goff Under 29.5 passing attempts (-125 at Caesars)
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The Detroit Lions, the best team in the NFC, put a seven-game winning streak on the line against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence and several key offensive stars.
Detroit has covered the number in six times during their seven-game winning streak. The Lions have the second-highest scoring offense, and a defense that’s somehow ranked in the top 10 despite losing star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.
Jacksonville has covered the number in four straight, but the Lions’ improving defense should be able to hold Jags QB2 Mac Jones in check. Jones has been serviceable, but the Jags offensive line can’t protect him, and his feet are the only weapon he has.
Quarterback Jared Goff has plenty of offensive firepower to throw at the Jags, but I expect the Lions to run the football and find great success against a Jags defense that allows 4.3 yards per play.
Goff has had much success through the air this season, but he’s only cleared 30+ passing attempts once. Being such a large favorite means he’ll likely be a game manager behind the Lions’ robust ground attack and won’t get near 30 passing attempts.
Lions wideout Jameson Williams is the key to the Detroit cover. He’s the second most targeted Lions’ receiver and has cleared 43+ receiving yards in five of his seven games. He’ll get his yardage against a Jags’ secondary that is allowing the 27th-most receiving yards per completion (11.0).
Jaguars vs. Lions moneyline odds analysis
Why Detroit could win as the favorite
Best odds: -750 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Detroit Lions are the best team in the NFC. The Lions are the second-highest-scoring team in the NFL, and their defense surrenders 19 points per game. Detroit is riding a seven-game winning streak and is 6-1-0 ATS in those seven victories.
Lions signal-caller Jared Goff throwing five interceptions last week at Houston was an aberration, yet Detroit’s offense still came through against an above-average Texans defense.
As good as the Lions’ offense has been, the Detroit defense fuels the Lions’ results. Despite losing DPOY candidate Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions are racking up nearly three sacks per game.
Jacksonville allows 2.3 sacks per game, so whoever suits up behind center for the Jags will have his hands full against the Detroit defense. The Lions’ defense will keep Jacksonville off the scoreboard, allowing the Lions to win comfortably at Ford Field.
Why Jacksonville could win as the underdog
Best odds: (+550 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The Jaguars could win this game, but they’ll need a Herculean effort from their defense. Jacksonville surrenders more total yards (390.1) than any other NFL team. They rank 30th in passing yards allowed and must find a way to stop the Lions’ numerous offensive weapons.
Trevor Lawrence has been ruled out. Mac Jones will get the nod with his backfield and best wideouts injured, but the Jags can catch Detroit flat with a couple of big scoring plays.
The Jags have dropped three straight but are 4-1-0 ATS across their last five. Two of those ATS wins were without Lawrence under center, and they could catch a break or two and pull off the upset.