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Major opinion poll gives massive Labor majority in UK election

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Opposition leader Keir Starmer is in the wind. A major opinion poll shows that the Labor leader is the favorite to become Britain’s next prime minister. Photo: Stefan Rousseau/PA via AP/NTB

Of NTB | 03.06.2024 19:23:00

Policy: Sky News published on Monday YouGov’s first of three election polls carried out with the statistical method MRP, which predicts the election result in each individual constituency.

The survey is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 people in Scotland from 24 May to 1 June.

The survey predicts 422 seats for the Labor party, which would give a majority of 194 seats – more than under Tony Blair in 1997. This is an increase of 221 representatives compared to the 2019 election and the highest number of mandates for a single party since 1924.

According to the YouGov poll, the Conservatives could lose 232 mandates and end up with 140 representatives – the lowest since 1906.

The Liberal Democrats get 48 of the 650 seats in the Lower House, a fourfold increase from 2019, according to the survey. In the survey, the Scottish nationalists get 17 out of 57 seats in Scotland, a sharp drop of 31 mandates.

The survey suggests the following percentage distribution of the vote at the election on 4 July: 24.5 per cent to the Conservatives, 42.9 per cent to Labour, 10.6 per cent to the Liberal Democrats, 10.1 per cent to Reform UK, 2.8 per cent to the SNP, 0.7 per cent to Plaid and 1.7 per cent to other parties.

Labour, led by Keir Starmer, has held a steady lead of around 20 percentage points over the Conservatives in other opinion polls.

(© NTB)

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