The latest high-stakes college football game kicks off Saturday afternoon when No. 4-ranked Ohio State hits the road to face No. 3 Penn State.
The winner will have an inside track to the Big Ten championship game and an instant highlight on their resume for the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The Buckeyes (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) are ranked lower than Penn State (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS), but they’re favored by 3.5 points by oddsmakers at the top sports betting apps.
Ohio State has won seven in a row over the Nittany Lions, but has failed to cover five times during the winning streak. With that in mind, let’s take a look at my Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions and best bets.
Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions and best bets
- Penn State +3.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
- Will Howard anytime TD (+190 at FanDuel)
- Carnell Tate receiving yards Over 42.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
It seems disrespectful for Penn State to be an underdog. The Nittany Lions are undefeated and playing in front of their home crowd. But Ohio State is a popular team and often gets the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers because they know the public will want to bet on the Buckeyes.
Ohio State has won seven straight over Penn State with an average margin of victory of 10.8 points in the last five games. The Buckeyes won 20-12 last season, covering as a 4-point favorite.
Defense was the name of that game for Ohio State, and it will have to be the same again on Saturday. The Buckeyes’ defense let it down against Oregon as QB Dillon Gabriel connected with too many deep passes.
Penn State and QB Drew Allar are also equipped to beat the Buckeyes with the deep ball. If Allar plays, expect a steady diet of passes to whatever wide receiver Ohio State CB Denzel Burke is covering.
Allar suffered a knee injury against Wisconsin last week and sat out the second half. If he does not play against Ohio State, the Nittany Lions will look to Beau Pribula, who was 11 for 13 for 98 yards in the second half against Wisconsin.
If Pribula plays, Penn State can still take advantage of the weakness in Ohio State’s defense, and that should make for a tight game that comes down to the wire.
There is also a trend that favors Penn State. In games between two teams ranked in the AP poll when the higher-ranked team is a single-digit favorite or underdog, they are 55-17 SU and 48-21-3 ATS (70%) since 2017.
This is the only season QB Will Howard will play for Ohio State (after transferring from Kansas State) so don’t expect him to miss his shot against Penn State. Howard grew up in Pennsylvania as a Penn State fan, but the Nittany Lions didn’t offer him a scholarship.
This week, Howard spoke about how he has a chip on his shoulder because of that. Look for Howard to stick it to Penn State with more than a victory if given the opportunity.
Ohio State loves to call running plays for Howard inside the 10-yard line. He has scored five rushing touchdowns this year — a result of the Buckeyes boasting powerful running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, who can take any handoff to the house.
The odds of +190 on this prop at FanDuel Sportsbook are too good to pass up.
Two receivers get more headlines than Ohio State’s Carnell Tate, but Tate has performed perfectly. While Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith pile up receptions and yards, Tate flies under the radar as a strong third option.
He has at least three receptions and 45 receiving yards in six of seven games. In last week’s win over Nebraska, he scored on a 40-yard pass. Penn State has good defensive players who can slow down Egbuka and Smith, so it could be on Tate to gain some big yards.
Ohio State vs. Penn State moneyline odds analysis
Why Ohio State could win as the favorite
Best odds: -170 at Caesars
Much will be made of last week’s clunker of a performance against Indiana in which Ohio State needed a late touchdown drive to win by four points. Even great teams struggle to fire on all cylinders every week, so don’t put too much stock into that one.
After all, a big game was on the horizon — this one against Penn State.
Count on the Buckeyes to figure out the leaks in the secondary well enough to keep Penn State from going crazy as Oregon did. If that happens, the Buckeyes’ ultra-talented offense should execute well enough to escape Happy Valley with another victory.
Why Penn State could win as the underdog
Best odds: +145 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Ohio State’s defense has been exposed, and Penn State has the tools to beat it. That is especially the case with Allar in his second year as the starting QB. If he plays Saturday, he’ll be much better than he was during last season’s game in Columbus.
The Nittany Lions’ defense ranks fourth in the nation in yards allowed per game. If they play at the top of their game they can frustrate the Buckeyes, who are coming off a bad offensive performance against Indiana.