Texas State vs. South Alabama predictions, pick, odds, spread for CFB Week 14 2024

South Alabama looks for a win over Texas State as they hope to snag a spot in the Sun Belt Title Game. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Texas State-South Alabama prediction and pick.

Texas State-South Alabama Last Game – Matchup History

Texas State comes into the game sitting at 6-5 this year, and 4-3 in conference play. They were still in contention for the Sun Belt West title before last week, when they fell to Georgia State 52-44, giving Georgia State their first conference win of the year. Meanwhile, South Alabama is 6-5 on the year and 5-2 in conference play. They have won four of their last five, including a win over Southern Miss last time out. They will win the Sun Belt West with a win in this game, and a loss by Louisiana.

Overall Series: This will be the tenth meeting between these two schools. Texas State leads the series 5-4. They also won the last game 52-44 in 2023. Still, the home team has won all nine games in this series, and no team has won back-to-back games over the other team.

Here are the Texas State-South Alabama College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Texas State-South Alabama Odds

Texas State: -1.5 (-102)

Moneyline: -110

South Alabama: +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -110

Over: 61.5 (-114)

Under: 61.5 (-106)

How to Watch Texas State vs. South Alabama

Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT

TV: ESPN+

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why Texas State Could Cover The Spread/Win

Jordan McCloud has led the way for the Texas State offense this year. He has completed 226 of 327 passes for 2,672 yards and 28 touchdowns. He has thrown ten interceptions this year and has been sacked 14 times. McCloud has also run for 249 yards and six scores on the ground.

McCloud’s top target has been Joey Hobert. He has 59 receptions on the year for 581 yards and seven touchdowns. Meanwhile, Jaden Williams has been great this year. He has 48 receptions for 581 yards and seven scores. Kole Wilson has also brought in 40 receptions this year, going for 567 yards and four scores. Rounding out the top targets is Chris Dawn Jr. Dawn has 30 receptions for 370 yards and six touchdowns.  In the running game, Ismail Mahdi has been the main man this year. He has 163 carries for 844 yards and three touchdowns. He is joined in the backfield by Torrance Burgess Jr. Burgess has run for 344 yards and two scores, while Lincoln Pare has also added five rushing touchdowns.

Texas State is 36 in the nation in points against this year, while sitting 44th in opponent yards per game. They are 74th against the rush while sitting 27th against the pass. Jordan Pol has led the way. He leads the team with 55 tackles while having a sack, two pass breakups, three forced fumbles, and a recovery. Meanwhile, Kalil Alexander has 5.5 sacks and a fumble recovery, while Steven Parker has five sacks and a forced fumble.

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Why South Alabama Could Cover The Spread/Win

South Alabama is led by Gio Lopez. Lopez has completed 190 of 289 passes for 2,369 yards and 17 touchdowns. Furthermore, he has just three interceptions. Lopez has been sacked 13 times but has run for 436 yards and six scores.

His top target has been Jamaal Pritchett. Pritchett has 82 receptions for 1,042 yards and eight scores. Meanwhile, Jeremiah Webb has 27 receptions for 414 yards and three scores. Kentrel Bullock has also added 15 receptions for 153 yards and a score out of the backfield. Further, he has run for 683 yards on 125 carries and six scores. The running game is led by Fluff Bothwell. Bothwell has 105 carries for 751 yards this year and 11 touchdowns.

South Alabama is 61st in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 95th in opponent yards per game. They are 53rd against the run but 121st against the pass. Blayne Myrick leads the way, coming in with 82 tackles, two sacks, and two pass breakups. Meanwhile, Joaden Voisin has five pass breakups and four interceptions, while Wesley Miller has three interceptions this year. Finally, Courtney McBride Jr. leads the team with four sacks this year.

Final Texas State-South Alabama Prediction & Pick

Texas State is ninth in the nation in points per game, but they are also solid on defense this year. The total has hit the under just three times this year, but all three of those were when the total was 60 or more points. The only time the over hit when the total was at 60 was the first game of the year against FCS Lamar. Meanwhile, South Alabama is scoring 29.2 points per game, but they also have given up just 24.9 per game. The total has hit the under in six of the last eight games, and seven games overall this year. It is also 4-2 when the total is 60 or more points. Take the under in this one.

Final Texas State-South Alabama Prediction & Pick: Under 61.5 (-106)