Lousy Lions teams of years past served as background noise during Thanksgiving preparations, but that’s no longer the case. Detroit hasn’t lost since NFL Week 2, and no team has better odds to win the Super Bowl.
The best online sportsbooks expect another blowout victory Thursday, but divisional games bring unique challenges. The Bears have only four wins but rise to the occasion against postseason contenders.
Continue reading to see my expert betting picks for Bears versus Lions.
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Bears vs. Lions predictions and best bets
- Bears +10.5: -122 odds at FanDuel
- Caleb Williams under 0.5 interceptions: +100 odds at BetMGM
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The best online sportsbooks are finding it difficult to handicap the Lions. TeamRankings reports Detroit’s 9-2 record against the spread (ATS) is tops in the NFL.
The Bears are 5-4-2 ATS with losses in five straight games. Betting trends clearly favor the Lions, but I’m predicting Chicago to keep it competitive and stay within the 10.5-point spread.
At 4-7, the Monsters of the Midway are stuck in the NFC North cellar. However, only two losses came by double digits, and the offensive line was depleted by injuries in both games. One Bears offensive lineman appeared on the weekly injury report, meaning the unit should be close to full strength.
I’m also leaning on long-term betting trends with my Bears pick. The Lions have lost seven straight games on Thanksgiving; three of which were against Chicago.
Despite the impressive turnaround in Detroit, head coach Dan Campbell’s squad still has trouble against their NFC North rivals. The Bears won or lost by one possession in 11 of the previous 12 meetings with the Lions.
QB Jared Goff hasn’t been stellar against Chicago. Goff has thrown for 215 yards per game with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in nine career matchups against the Bears.
Speaking of QBs, I’m also betting on Caleb Williams to avoid throwing an interception. Detroit’s ball-hawking secondary has 14 picks, so it’s understandable to disagree with my prediction.
However, Chicago’s passing attack has run far smoother in the past two games with interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling the plays. Williams’ last interception was in Week 6, and he’s thrown a pick in three of 11 games.
Bears vs. Lions moneyline odds analysis
Why the Lions could win as the favorite
Best odds: -500 at DraftKings
The Lions haven’t just beaten teams en route to a 10-1 record. Some of the matchups have been utter domination.
Detroit has an NFL-leading +177-point differential. The Bills are second but trail by a mile at +106.
Losing DE Aidan Hutchinson has caused the Lions to get less pressure on opposing QBs, but the defense is still performing at a high level. Detroit allows the second-fewest points per game and is tied for third in turnover differential.
The Lions should be extra confident on Thanksgiving after surrendering zero touchdowns in 10 consecutive quarters.
Detroit’s offensive depth chart looks like a fantasy football roster. No team scores more points per game, and it all starts with a strong offensive line.
Goff is having an MVP-caliber season thanks to the assortment of weapons at his disposal.
RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have over 1,500 rushing yards and 21 total touchdowns. Pass-catchers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta have more than 1,700 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Why the Bears could win as the underdog
Best odds: +400 at Fanatics
The Bears had a down season in 2023 but still played the Lions tough. Chicago almost went 2-0 against Detroit if it wasn’t for a collapse in the first meeting, when the Bears blew a 12-point lead late in the fourth quarter.
With only four wins and an extremely difficult schedule to close the year, the focus in the Windy City has shifted to Williams’ development. That doesn’t mean the Bears can’t celebrate a few wins along the way.
Williams had one of his best games as a pro last week, passing for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Caleb has reliable pass catchers like DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet and Rome Odunze.
RB D’Andre Swift’s production has been up and down, and Chicago’s offense is at its best when Swift gets out in space and makes plays.
Chicago’s defense will need to tighten up to pull a Thanksgiving upset. The unit doesn’t lack talent but surrendered an average of 24 points and over 100 rushing yards in the past four games.