Shopping in the supermarket: For many consumers in Germany, this has not always been pure pleasure in recent years. The reason for this was high inflation. According to the Federal Statistical Office, in July 2024, food and non-alcoholic beverages were on average more than 32 percent more expensive than four years ago.
There are numerous reasons for this, such as the effects of the corona pandemic and the war in Ukraine, climate change and rising costs for raw materials, energy and personnel. An overview of the food products for which the test buyers have registered the largest price increases since July 2020:
Olive oil (+112.6 percent)
In July, consumers had to pay more than twice as much for a bottle of olive oil as they did four years ago. “The most important reason is the collapse in production in the most important producing country, Spain, in the 2022/23 financial year,” says Thomas Els, head of consumer research at the Agricultural Market Information Company (AMI). There has been only a slight recovery in the current harvest season. The reason is poor harvests due to droughts.
Sugar (+83.3)
Sugar is also significantly more expensive than it was in 2020. The price development is shaped by supply concerns on the global sugar market and has also affected prices in Germany, says Els. “Prices reached a record level in 2022, and the upward trend continued in 2023. Another reason is the lower sugar content in sugar beet due to the wet weather, says food expert Jana Fischer from the Hamburg Consumer Advice Center.
Biscuits (+77.4)
Difficult times for those with a sweet tooth: Due to rising prices for raw materials such as sugar, flour and fats, biscuits have become considerably more expensive. “The wheat harvest was lower in Germany both last year and this year due to wet weather,” says Fischer. The price of wheat flour was therefore significantly higher in July 2024 (+61.5) than four years previously. Another reason for the increase was the war in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are among the most important grain exporters in the world. The developments also affected the prices of crispbread and rusks (+66.4).
Quark (+72.6)
The prices for dairy products such as quark have risen significantly. Smaller milk volumes than in previous years and a low fat content in raw milk led to rising producer prices in 2021/2022, after which they fell again. Since the beginning of 2024, there has been another increase. In July 2024, quark was more than 70 percent more expensive than four years previously. There were also price jumps for condensed milk (+61.5), cream (+48.7), semi-hard cheese (+45.8) and butter (+39.4). Why has quark increased the most? Its production is the most complex, says the spokesman for the Federal Association of German Dairy Farmers, Hans Foldenauer.
Tomato ketchup or spice ketchup (+64.9)
Consumers also have to pay significantly more for tomato and spice ketchup. According to the food association Kulinaria, this is mainly due to the sharp increase in costs for important ingredients such as tomato paste, vinegar and starch, but also for energy and packaging.
Asparagus or other canned vegetables (+64.5)
Canned goods with asparagus or mixed vegetables (+64.5), peas (+62.5) and sauerkraut (60.9) were also affected by price increases. “2022 was a particularly bad harvest year for vegetables across Europe,” says Christoph Freitag, managing director of the Federal Association of the Fruit, Vegetable and Potato Processing Industry. The harvest in 2023 was not much better. The material also contributed to the price increases. The high demand for canned goods during the pandemic drove up the prices of tinplate. Another factor was the increase in costs for personnel, energy and logistics, says Freitag.
Sunflower oil, rapeseed oil or similar (+63.4)
Oils are also at the top of the list of the biggest price increases. Starting from a low level in 2020, wholesale prices for rapeseed and sunflower oil refined products had already risen sharply in 2021, says expert Els. As a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine, prices then exploded. Before the war, Ukraine had been the world’s largest exporter, from which the EU sourced a large part of its imports. Accordingly, in spring 2022, sunflower oil was hardly available in supermarkets for weeks, and the shelves were empty. Recently, consumer prices for oil have fallen again.
Only one food item cheaper than in July 2020
There are numerous other products that have seen significant price increases of 30 percent or more since 2020. According to the Federal Statistical Office, only one food is a good 2 percent cheaper today than it was then: citrus fruits. “Spain’s ability to deliver lemons in particular was exceptionally high this season. Demand is weak, as is usual for the season,” says Els. Oranges, tangerines, clementines, grapefruits and lemons are all cheaper than four years ago.
The test buyers recently registered lower prices for no other food than in July 2020. The smallest increases were recorded for pears (+0.8) and apples (+7.4). According to Els, apples had above-average harvest quantities in 2021 and 2022, declining purchasing mood and therefore lower prices. However, because the current apple harvest is poor, industry experts expect prices to rise.
Some price declines since July 2023
At least: For some foodstuffs, consumers did not have to dig as deep into their pockets in July as they did twelve months earlier. The biggest price drops were for carrots (-13.8), onions and garlic (-13.7), frozen fruit (-13.1), citrus fruit (-9.3), sunflower oil and rapeseed oil (-8.6) and wheat flour (-8.3). However, the products mentioned have one thing in common: they are more expensive than in 2020, in some cases significantly more.
Recently, food prices have only increased slightly compared to the previous month, by 1.3 percent. However, this also means that the increase is continuing after prices have already risen sharply in many cases in recent years.
Can consumers hope that shopping will become cheaper again? “It is always difficult to predict how prices will develop in the future,” says Jana Fischer from the consumer advice center. Droughts and heavy rain are therefore having a growing impact on food prices.
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