According to a study, extensive measures could create 1.36 million full-time workers among 55- to 70-year-olds by 2035. That equates to around 1.5 million older people, reported labor market expert Eric Thode from the Bertelsmann Foundation. A whole range of steps and changes are required to encourage people in the final phase of their working lives to work more, stay in their jobs longer, or return from retirement. These include financial incentives, labor law simplifications, the creation of age-appropriate jobs, but also the expansion of health care, nursing and care services.
Need for action in view of unfavourable forecasts
In its recently published model calculation commissioned by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) assumes that by 2035 the number of employed people in the 55 to 70 age group will fall by around 1.5 million due to demographic change – to just under 9 million. However, this future shrinkage can be compensated for if business and politics succeed in reaching older people with tailored offers. And framework conditions – for example tax and legal – must be changed, Thode told the German Press Agency.
What are the key starting points?
According to the foundation, the analysis includes all people in the 55-70 age group and covers all sectors. “Different measures are of course needed for different professional groups,” stressed Thode. Concrete examples: A long-time production worker can switch to a less physically demanding position in the company when he or she gets older. A senior roofer takes care of material procurement on the computer in the office. An elderly care worker is provided with technical aids such as hoists to get her patients out of bed without exerting too much effort.
The country is dependent on the labor and experience of older people. In its simulation, the DIW based its work on Sweden, where older people are much more likely to be employed and life satisfaction is very high.
The study sees greater potential in several groups
The starting point: Around 6.1 million people in this age group are currently receiving an old-age or disability pension. Three quarters of old-age pensioners aged 65 and over say that they have no health problems. “Financial incentives and tailored job offers would be suitable measures for them.”
In Germany, 3.6 million people between the ages of 55 and 70 currently work part-time – an average of 20.3 hours per week. Many could be persuaded to increase their hours to full-time if the offers are suitable and they are relieved of care and nursing responsibilities. DIW and the foundation also see great potential in mobilizing older people who are no longer employed but are not yet receiving a pension and who cover their living expenses from other sources.
The to-do list is long
In order to tap the unused employment potential of older people, barriers should be removed and they need to be valued more. Further training is important and should be guaranteed by politicians. Adjustments must be made to tax and social policy, as well as to labor law, the study states. Not everyone in old age is healthy enough to work, explained Thode. Early health promotion is essential.
Ability, willingness, and permission, says the Institute for Labor Market and Occupational Research
For the IAB, Vice Director Ulrich Walwei explained: “There is a need for ability, a need for will and a need for permission.” Regarding permission: “Some of the framework conditions would have to be changed – collective agreements, company agreements, individual contracts.” When it comes to ability, prevention – especially in the areas of education and health – is crucial for longer employability. “Our analyses show that those who are well equipped with their skills in old age through formal qualifications and lifelong learning are also more likely to be able to work for longer.” The prerequisite is physical, mental and psychological fitness – here, in addition to the state and the economy, every individual is required.
According to Walwei, personal motivation is the focus when it comes to wanting something. “It’s also about the remuneration, i.e. to what extent am I willing to let someone buy my time – and the question of whether the potential is valued and whether one is employed in a way that is appropriate to one’s age and skills.” There should be as few career breaks as possible. If people leave the workforce early, for example through part-time retirement or early retirement, it is difficult to get them back into the job market after a break, says the economist. Incentives that the traffic light government is currently planning could be helpful.
Among other things, the traffic light coalition is planning a new bonus for people who want to work beyond retirement age. Employees are already increasing their future pension payments if they work beyond the regular retirement age. In the future, however, there will also be the option of having the entitlements paid out in one go – in the form of a so-called pension deferral bonus.
Doing nothing is not an alternative
IBA models even see potential, purely mathematically, that goes beyond the scope of 1.36 million full-time employees. “But that will not be easy to achieve. I don’t see any big leaps of this magnitude and in such a short time,” said Walwei. In his most recent “IAB research report” on older workers, he made it clear that high or increasing employment rates among older people are definitely “not a given.” “Many things will certainly require patience, but doing nothing is not an alternative.”
© dpa-infocom, dpa:240919-930-236811/1
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