The strategy has obviously worked: The AfD or me – that is what Brandenburg’s SPD Prime Minister Diemtar Woidke has made the focus of his election campaign. For months, the AfD was ahead in the polls – shortly before the election it still had a narrow lead.
Dietmar Woidke has made rapid progress for the SPD in Brandenburg. The 62-year-old, who has been Prime Minister for eleven years, has, according to projections, made the SPD the strongest force ahead of the AfD. That would also be a sign of cosmopolitanism and tolerance. Woidke can probably continue to govern. The other side of the coin: the AfD has become stronger, and the duel is to the detriment of the CDU, the Greens and the Left.
The election was also a vote on Woidke
“Then I’m gone,” was the sentence that made the election the most important political decision of Woidke’s life. He had announced that he would withdraw from the government if the AfD – which the Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as a suspected right-wing extremist case – became the strongest force. However, the SPD could also have formed the government as the second strongest force, because so far no other party wants to form a coalition with the AfD.
Thanks to an immense recovery by Woidke’s SPD, the party is stronger than it was five years ago. Comrades hugged each other at the election party. The SPD has been the head of government in Brandenburg since 1990. According to surveys, the majority of Brandenburgers wanted Woidke to remain prime minister. Woidke is the SPD’s workhorse. His party has gained despite Olaf Scholz: the trend against the traffic light government worked against Woidke. He therefore ran an election campaign that distanced himself from the SPD chancellor and the traffic light coalition.
AfD sees itself as the party of the future
The AfD has grown significantly stronger. “The future is blue,” says top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt, referring to the party’s color. During the election campaign, the AfD put the issue of migration at the forefront and, after the suspected Islamist attack in Solingen, stoked hatred against asylum seekers. The AfD is calling for the state to be partially restructured and the Office for the Protection of the Constitution to be abolished in its current form. Despite the country’s good economic figures, the election shows that there is a relatively high level of dissatisfaction.
“Bitter evening” for the CDU
The CDU – the previous coalition partner – is one of the losers of the election. CDU state leader Jan Redmann, who actually wanted to become prime minister, spoke of a “bitter evening”. In July, the SPD and CDU were neck and neck in polls, but the escalation of AfD or SPD has damaged the Christian Democrats. Redmann was annoyed that Saxony’s CDU prime minister Michael Kretschmer personally supported Woidke in the election campaign.
It is still unclear what the future coalition government might look like. Despite the losses, the CDU will most likely be able to continue to govern: it is Woidke’s preferred coalition partner.
Trembling at the Greens – joy at the BSW
The Greens – also a coalition partner of the SPD until now – have also suffered from the duel, and there was also headwind against the traffic light coalition at the federal level. The Greens’ numbers in Brandenburg may have been halved compared to the 2019 election.
The Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition has satisfied faces. Lead candidate Robert Crumbach spoke of a “really great result”. He stressed before the election that he was not interested in being part of the government at any price. The new party may have been higher in the polls, but it is represented in the state parliament – unlike the Left.
Until five years ago, the Left Party was a coalition partner of the SPD – now it is in ruins. Group leader and top candidate Sebastian Walter sees a clear reason for the party’s demise in the state parliament: “We were shredded by the SPD,” he said on ARD. The Left Party now wants to rebuild itself from the bottom up.
A direct mandate is enough to enter the state parliament
For the BVB/Free Voters association, as for the Greens, the election night was a nail-biter. According to projections, the party was below the five percent hurdle, but with a direct mandate from top candidate Péter Vida, it could still enter the state parliament – the same applies to the Greens with their Potsdam direct candidate Marie Schäffer.
The election brings new responsibilities for the SPD. It faces the difficult task of forming a government. At the same time, it must try to involve AfD voters so that the country is not torn apart.
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