Let’s be honest, if there’s one thing you can always count on in Ireland, it’s the weather. And by ‘count on’ I mean it will likely change three times before you finish reading this article.
But as chaotic as it might seem, predicting storms is even trickier. The reason? The science behind storminess (yes, that’s a real word!) is more complicated than you’d expect, and when you toss climate change into the mix, things get even murkier.
Thankfully, though, research into Ireland’s ancient weather patterns is helping us figure out what the future might hold.
While most people might think weather data starts and ends with meteorologists, a group of Scandinavian scientists decided to dig a little deeper, literally. By slicing into the bogs of County Mayo, specifically Roycarter Bog, they’ve literally unearthed a treasure trove of weather history hidden in peat layers that go back 8,000 years.
Turns out, Ireland has always had a stormy reputation. Around 6,000 years ago, the west coast took a hammering from some of the strongest storms ever recorded. Then, about 4,000 years ago, when temperatures started to drop, we saw a rise in storm frequency, but with shorter bursts.
Over the past 8,000 years, we’ve identified 11 distinct stormy phases, plenty of time for Irish ancestors to perfect the art of staying indoors.
To figure out why Ireland gets hit by storms, you have to look at the bigger picture… the really big picture. Three key players take centre stage in Ireland’s stormy drama: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the jet stream, and Atlantic Sea surface temperatures.
The NAO tends to have the weather equivalent of mood swings. In its positive phase, we’re in for stormy winters with wet, windy conditions. In its negative phase, things calm down, with colder, drier air settling in. Add the jet stream into the mix (essentially a fast-flowing river of air up high in the atmosphere) and you’ve got a recipe for unpredictable weather. The kicker is that climate change is making these systems even harder to predict.
If you’ve ever watched the Atlantic batter Ireland’s coastline during a storm, you’ll know that it’s not just the wind and rain we have to worry about, it’s the storm surges. These happen when strong winds and low pressure push the ocean inland, raising sea levels temporarily and flooding coastal areas. Rising sea levels, thanks to climate change, are only making this worse.
Take Storm Darwin in 2014, for instance. It wasn’t just the strong winds, clocking over 150 km/h, that caused havoc; it was the storm surge that hit the western coast. Coastal roads were swamped, and towns such as Lahinch in County Clare saw significant damage from the combination of high tides and powerful waves crashing ashore. The cost of repairing storm damage that year ran into the tens of millions.
Another infamous example is Storm Ophelia in 2017. While most people remember it for being one of the strongest storms to ever hit Ireland, it also brought dangerous storm surges, especially along the southern coastline. Cork and Galway were hit hard, with widespread flooding. In some places, sea walls were overtopped, causing extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure.
Even if the frequency of storms doesn’t increase dramatically in the future, rising sea levels mean that surges like these will become more destructive. Ireland’s western coast, where cliffs may provide some protection, isn’t immune. Low-lying areas and towns built along rivers and estuaries are particularly vulnerable. Every time we get a storm, the risk of coastal flooding increases, especially during the winter months when these storms tend to hit hardest.
So, will Ireland see stronger storms in the future? The answer seems to be yes, but it’s complicated. Some storms might pack a bigger punch, but we might actually see fewer of them if the storm track moves further north. On the flip side, if it shifts south, we could be in for more frequent storms.
What we’ve learned from the Roycarter Bog study is that storm patterns have changed dramatically in the past due to shifts in climate. But these changes don’t follow a predictable path. Ireland, sitting at the edge of the North Atlantic, is always exposed to whatever the weather throws at it.
One thing is clear though, the future won’t bring ‘business as usual’ when it comes to storms. Climate change is shaking up the forces that drive our weather, and we’re heading into unknown territory.
The winds of change aren’t just coming — they’re already blowing. And if Ireland’s stormy past has taught us anything, it’s that we need to be ready for whatever the future holds.
- Dr Michelle McKeown is a lecturer in Environmental Geography at University College Cork
