Big Ten football is in full swing, and this weekend Ohio State will get a good test as the Iowa Hawkeyes come to Columbus, hoping to play spoiler to the Buckeyes’ pursuit of 5-0.
The Buckeyes are favored by sportsbooks, with the spread ranging from 18.5 to 19.5 points depending on the book. The over/under for the game is set at 45.5.
Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions
- Ohio State -18.5 (-102 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Over 45.5 (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- 1st quarter total under 9.5 (+100 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Buckeyes have one of the most talented rosters in college football, and that starts with their backfield tandem of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. While the Iowa defense has been able to limit opposing run games, it’s yet to see an offense with the firepower of Ohio State.
If Iowa does try to go all in on shutting down the run, Ohio State QB Will Howard has one of the top receiving trios in the country, with freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith seemingly getting better each week.
This game should still go over, however, because the Hawkeyes are not the same offense we’ve known before. This team has one of the most dominant RBs in the country in Kaleb Johnson, who has yet to go under 100 yards in a contest. Johnson had 206 yards and three touchdowns last weekend in Iowa’s victory over Minnesota.
With the Buckeyes likely to score around 35 points, it’s hard to see the Hawkeyes not scoring at least 10 of their own, if not more.
Still, I like the under 9.5 point total in the first quarter because Iowa has yet to allow a first-quarter point. If the Ohio State defense comes into this game ready, it truly seems like a scoreless first quarter could be on the table.
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Hawkeyes vs. Buckeyes moneyline odds analysis
Why Ohio State could win as the favorite
Best Odds: -1050 moneyline with DraftKings Sportsbook
In terms of firepower, there aren’t many teams across the country that even hold a candle to the talent throughout the Ohio State roster.
Offensively, the team has skill players better than some NFL teams. Defensively, the team is filled with players who opted to push off going pro for another chance at a national championship or players who eventually will start to hear their name in draft talk.
So far this season, the Buckeyes have had some small in-game hiccups but have yet to allow a game to remain close. Even against Michigan State, the team quickly established dominance before pulling off the gas and winning 38-7 to kick off conference play.
Ohio State has championship aspirations. While it can’t overlook any opponent, this should be just another tune-up contest. Iowa no doubt will provide some good competition with their defense and rushing offense, but not enough to close this gap.
Why Iowa could win as the underdog
Best Odds: +800 moneyline with Fanatics Sportsbook
While Ohio State has the roster to be one of the top teams in the nation, it has yet to go against a team of Iowa’s caliber. So when Johnson and the Hawkeyes come to town, it won’t be easy to come out victorious.
Offensively, QB Cade McNamara comes into the game with plenty of experience under his belt between his time with Iowa and Michigan. On top of that, TE Luke Lachey is one of the best pass catchers in the country despite his pedestrian box score totals.
If Iowa can grind out long drives and keep the Buckeyes from finding rhythm, this one could be tight. The Big Ten is filled with competitive, scrappy teams and upsets in college football are inevitable.
As the playoff field expands, teams are more likely to get caught asleep at the wheel. That plays to the favor of a disciplined football team like Iowa. It won’t be easy on the road, but the Hawkeyes have the pieces to create some chaos this weekend.
