69% of Ohio voters oppose gerrymandering ahead of Issue 1 vote, Baldwin Wallace poll finds

COLUMBUS, Ohio – The vast majority of Ohio voters oppose the practice of creating electoral boundaries that give one party an advantage, a new Baldwin Wallace University poll finds.

The wide-ranging poll’s finding that 69% of Ohio voters oppose gerrymandering comes as voters ponder Issue 1, a proposed state constitutional amendment that would remove elected politicians from the process of drawing maps for state legislative and congressional districts and replace it with an independent citizens’ commission made up equally of Democrats, Republicans and independents.

In a controversial GOP move upheld by the Republican-dominated Ohio Supreme Court, the language Ohio voters will see as they begin casting ballots this week says that Issue 1 requires gerrymandering, the very practice that the campaign backing the amendment says it is designed to eliminate.

“It remains to be seen if the level of antipathy toward gerrymandering translates to support for Issue 1 with the controversial wording of the final ballot language,” said Lauren Copeland, director of BW’s Community Research Institute. “Rather than reflecting the intent of the amendment to establish a citizen-led independent redistricting process, the language is misleading. Elected politicians in Ohio from both parties have a long history of trying to hold onto the power that gerrymandering confers.”

The survey of 877 registered voters across Ohio, conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 1, asked Ohioans about the issues weighing their minds going into the presidential election. Their feelings are complicated, it shows.

Ohioans have mixed attitudes toward immigration, the poll found, and voters’ expressed largely negative perceptions of elected leaders. The poll found most Ohioans embrace conservative views on inflation, the economy and immigration. But Ohioans align with progressives on gun control, abortion rights and education.

In one of the most contentious issues at the Ohio Statehouse over the last several years, poll respondents agreed with the sentiment behind Republican-backed restrictions on transgender Ohioans, including prohibitions on allowing athletes to play on a team that doesn’t match their gender assigned at birth and bans on gender affirming care for minors.

The margin of error for most of the questions in the survey is plus or minus 4%.

Opinions of national issues

The Baldwin Wallace survey asked voters what they believed are the most important issues facing the country. Inflation and the economy topped the list:

-Inflation: 24.3%

-Economy: 18.3%

-Immigration: 15%

-Threats to democracy: 9.7%

-Abortion: 5.9%

-Health care: 4.3%

-Government spending: 4.1%

-Gun violence: 4.1%

-Violent crime: 3.4%

-Drug addiction: 2.8%

-Crime: 2.7%

-Education: 2%

-Racism: 1.9%

-Policing: 0.3%

-Other: 1.3%

Immigration and Springfield

In separate questions, the survey showed negative views on immigration.

Among the respondents, 45.2% said undocumented workers should be required to leave the country; 34.5% said undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship. And 11.2% said they should be allowed to remain in the country but cannot apply for citizenship.

Almost half – 48.2% – believe immigrants contribute negatively to the economy; 27.3% of respondents said that immigrants contribute positively

As to whether immigrants pose a public safety threat, 57.8% said it was significant or moderate; 38.5% said it was moderate or there was no threat.

Those responses might help explain why Republicans have put a spotlight on immigration in their campaign message. Former President Donald Trump and his vice presidential running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance, have tried to capitalize on unsubstantiated viral rumors about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, eating their neighbors’ pets. Local officials have refuted those claims, and Gov. Mike DeWine has backed them up by condemning those spreading the rumors.

Despite the tougher views the poll found on immigration, DeWine’s calls for civility and truthfulness in Springfield struck a chord. Sixty percent of voters across the political spectrum agreed with DeWine’s New York Times editorial on Springfield, that the rhetoric surrounding Haitian immigrants hurts “the city and its people.”

Just 22.1% somewhat or strongly disagree.

“The response to DeWine’s editorial shows that Ohioans are capable of bipartisan consensus on immigration when the message is one of empathy and humanity,” Copeland said. “It’s a hopeful sign that voters across the board recognize the damage divisive rhetoric can cause and are willing to support a more humane approach.”

Opinions of public officials

Outgoing President Joe Biden is not popular in Ohio, with 53.3% of respondents saying he does a “poor” job representing their views. Only 30.8% said Biden does an “excellent” or “good” job representing their views; 14.6% said Biden did a “fair” job.

As the Republican leader of a red state, DeWine is better liked, with 44.2% of respondents saying he does an excellent or good job representing their views and 29.7% saying he does a fair job. Just 22.3% said DeWine did a poor job.

Unlike Biden, a Democrat who only received excellent or good ratings from 6.1% of Republicans, DeWine received more cross-party love: 33.3% of Democrats rated him excellent or good.

U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Cleveland Democrat who is facing an expensive, closely watched reelection race against GOP Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, falls in the middle of Biden and DeWine: 38.4% of respondents said Brown does an excellent or good job representing them, while 32.9% said he does a poor job. Most of Brown’s approval came from Democrats – with 78.3% saying he does an excellent or good job; only 11.6% of Republicans agreed with that sentiment. Still, 24.7% of Republicans said Brown does a fair job; 56.2% of Republicans said he does a poor job.

Pollsters didn’t ask respondents about Moreno.

Vance, a Cincinnati Republican, earned 34.3% of voters’ excellent and good ratings. Women disliked Vance more than men, after he has made disparaging comments about “childless cat ladies,” and “postmenopausal females.” Among women, Vance received a 39.6% poor rating, although men’s disapproval didn’t fall too far behind, at 35.6%.

Respondents were not big fans of the Ohio General Assembly, which are dominated by historic Republican supermajorities. Just 27.3% thought they do an excellent or good job representing them. Another 39.6% said they did a fair job and 21% said they did a poor job. Another 12.2% were not sure, the highest rate of uncertainty of all politicians in the survey.

Other issues

-Education: 84.3% of respondents support teaching lessons on the history and impact of race and racism in the U.S.; 60.9% back teaching sexual orientation in middle and high schools. Less than half – 43.3% – agree that parents should have control over which books are in the school library.

-Gun control: Despite the permissive gun laws passed in recent years by the Ohio General Assembly, 85.6% support expanding background checks for purchasers aged 18 to 21; 75.1% support raising the minimum age to buy an AR-15-style semiautomatic rifle from 18 to 21. Nearly three-quarters, 73.4%, of voters also support red flag laws, which allow the temporary removal of guns from individuals deemed dangerous. A majority of respondents support a ban on the sale of AR-15-style semi-automatic rifles, 55.4%.

-Abortion rights: 55.5% of Ohio voters say abortion should generally be permitted with some limitations, which is directly in line with the 56.8% of Ohioans who voted to enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution last year, as well as earlier polling by Baldwin Wallace and other pollsters.

-Climate Change: 62.8% of voters believe human activity is at least partially responsible for global climate change.

-Transgender rights: 73.4% strongly or somewhat oppose allowing athletes to play on the team that matches their gender identity. Slightly fewer – 72.6% – object to medical professionals providing minors with medical care for a gender transition. Another 66.3% oppose laws or policies that would allow transgender people to use public bathrooms that match their gender identity. And 56.3% of respondents support laws or policies requiring schools to notify parents if they discover that a student identifies with a gender that is not aligned with their sex at birth. Views on those restrictions straddled party lines in the poll, with a majority of Democrats surveyed saying they oppose allowing athletes to play on the team that matches their gender identity and object to providing minors with medical care for a gender transition.

“Although Ohio’s political leadership is leveraging conservative, wedge issues like illegal immigration and transgender rights in political advertising this election cycle, the Ohio electorate is more progressive on many other issues like education, gun restrictions and abortion,” Copeland said.

Laura Hancock covers state government and politics for The Plain Dealer and cleveland.com.