CLEVELAND, Ohio — Things change fast in the NFL. Teams with bleak outlooks can hit on just one pick in the draft and ascend to contention the next year. Likewise, teams coming off deep playoff runs can collapse by Week 3 the next year.
Sunday’s Browns loss to the Commanders was a microcosm of this dynamic. The Commanders laid a 34-13 beatdown on the team that had the NFL’s best defense a year ago, with Washington coming off a 4-13 season and starting a No. 2 overall draft pick at quarterback in Jayden Daniels.
The Browns entered the 2024 season with high expectations for their defense. With a talented group of cornerbacks and a domineering defensive line, there was no doubt — either internally or externally — that this was still the premier defense in the NFL.
The cornerback group was widely seen as the defense’s greatest strength, even with Myles Garrett in the front seven. Denzel Ward, a two-time Pro Bowler, came into the season as one of the league’s elite cornerbacks. Greg Newsome II, who has flashed significant potential since being drafted in the first round in 2021, was expected to take another step forward in the slot. Martin Emerson Jr. had a breakout campaign in 2023 and was building a league-wide reputation as a physical presence on the outside.
However, this highly touted secondary unit has underperformed, raising questions about what has gone wrong. Why have the Browns corners struggled in 2024? Is it an isolated problem or reflective of a greater defensive problem?
Let’s dive into the numbers to find out:
Browns pass defense at a glance
Using charted data from Sports Info Solutions, we can evaluate how the Browns pass defense has performed in 2024, position group by position group.
Expected Points Added (EPA) is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points in a game. This is done by calculating the Expected Points (EP) of the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play and comparing it to the result at the end of the play. For example, a 3-yard gain on first and 10 has a different impact on the game than a 3-yard gain on third and 2, something that isn’t captured in basic statistics.
Here is how the Browns break down:
Linebackers
- 0.6 yards per pass attempt (3rd)
- 62.5% completion allowed (4th)
- -0.02 EPA/play (15th)
Cornerbacks
- 3.6 yards per pass attempt (32nd)
- 50% completion allowed (4th)
- -0.02 EPA/play (22nd)
Safeties
- 0.3 yards per pass attempt (6th)
- 42.9% completion allowed (7th)
- 0.04 EPA/play (17th)
Both the linebacking corps and the safeties are playing well against the pass. Both units rank comfortably in the top 10 compared to other NFL defenses in yards per pass attempt and completion percentage.
While their respective rankings in EPA/play are league average, this is simply because the Browns defense hasn’t forced many turnovers. EPA values interceptions and fumbles over consistent play-to-play dominance.
The statistics of the Browns cornerbacks in pass coverage are bizarre.
They rank last, allowing the most yards per pass attempt, but are one of the best units in terms of lowest completion percentage? This means opponents are gaining tons of yardage targeting the Browns’ cornerbacks when they manage to complete the pass. In other words, it’s often a boom-or-bust kind of outcome.
Opposing offenses are attacking the Browns down the sidelines, mainly because of how poorly Emerson has played this year.
As an outside cornerback, Emerson has allowed 62.5% of throws targeting him to be caught, for an average of 14.2 yards a catch. Those numbers rank fifth-worst and fourth-worst, respectively, among starting CBs in the league.
Those numbers are even more shocking given how well he played in his rookie season. Coming out of the draft, Emerson’s length and physical playing style projected him to be a rangy zone corner if he could hone his eye discipline.
Emerson in man-to-man coverage
- 2023: 37.7 passer rating (third-best)
- 2024: 143.3 passer rating (worst)
In 2023, Emerson was one of the best cornerbacks in man coverage. He was so good in man coverage that Newsome slid to play slot cornerback because of just how dominant Emerson was on the outside.
But to start this season he has completely flipped. It has been drastic — going from elite to awful. Surprisingly, one reason for this has been the Browns pass rush.
Browns pass rush in man-to-man coverage
- 2023: 41.2% pressure rate (third)
- 2024: 32.5% pressure rate (23rd)
The Browns pass rush was so good in 2023 that the cornerbacks didn’t have to hold up in coverage for very long. This boded well for a player like Emerson, whose physicality and length give him the edge in the beginning of the route. All Emerson would have to do is use his physical traits to jam his receiver at the line of scrimmage to prevent quick passes and let the Browns pass rush go to work.
This season, the Browns pass rush has been noticeably less dominant, and as a result so has Emerson. A less effective pass rush has forced the Browns cornerbacks to hold up in coverage for longer, which doesn’t benefit a player like Emerson. As the play goes on longer, more space opens up for the receiver to work with, and more speed and agility is required to maintain coverage.
The Browns defense has been an overrated unit that has significantly underperformed its 2023-based expectations.
The first few games showed cracks in the armor, but the performance trend has been downward rather than upward. The disappointing result against the Commanders showed the Browns defense that it might be time to stop the talk about cementing a legacy of an all-time defense and focus on returning to the fundamentals of the 2023 campaign.
