CLEVELAND, Ohio — Every playoff game has moments that matter, but in a win-or-go-home scenario, some moments stand out more than others. Saturday’s Game 5 of the American League Division Series between Detroit and Cleveland was no different.
The 7-3 Cleveland victory featured big strikeouts from Hunter Gaddis and Eli Morgan, solid defensive plays from Brayan Rocchio and at least one very memorable at-bat from Lane Thomas that ended with the Guardians in front by four runs.
Statcast charts each at-bat and calculates shifts in win probability. A base hit in the first or second inning might move the line a little. A grand slam in the fifth clearly moves the line a lot. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said the story of Game 5 was missed opportunities for the Tigers.
“They only had opportunities in three or four innings, we had them in seven or eight,” Hinch said. “But they got the biggest swing in the biggest moment with the most at stake and separated themselves, and they were able to hang on with a beast of a bullpen that is tough to deal with.”
Below are five moments from Game 5 that mattered the most.
Win probability for Game 5 of the American League Division Series between Cleveland and Detroit.Image via BaseballSavant
Brayan Rocchio’s leaping catch in the 8th
Cleveland was clinging to a three-run lead when Eli Morgan walked Parker Meadows to open the eighth inning. Stephen Vogt brought in Emmanuel Clase and Meadows immediately stole second base with Jake Rogers at the plate. Clase got Rogers to line a slider toward left field, but Rocchio made a leaping, spinning catch for the first out of the inning. The dazzling defensive stop set the tone for Clase’s flawless outing and upped Cleveland’s win probability by 4.1%
“Roch’s been one of the best shortstops if not the best shortstop in the American League all year,” Vogt said after the game. “And Roch has arguably been the most consistent hitter in our lineup, other than Kwan, for this postseason. And it’s just been really fun to see him kind of come out of his shell.”
Eli Morgan’s back-to-back punchouts in the 7th
Hunter Gaddis had allowed back-to-back hits, including an RBI double by Colt Keith that cut Cleveland’s lead to 5-3 in the seventh. Vogt called on Eli Morgan to stop Detroit’s momentum. Morgan, who had not pitched in many high-leverage situations during the regular season (just 15 hig-leverage plate appearances per BaseballReference.com) responded with two of the biggest punchouts of the day, whiffing Wenceel Perez on three fastballs in the strike zone and locking up Spencer Torkelson on a gorgeous changeup to cap a six-pitch at-bat. The two strikeouts added a combined 9.3% to Cleveland’s win probability.
“This is literally one of the best bullpens in baseball, and we saw it in its entirety,” Hinch said. “We chased a little bit more than normal, but they create that by getting into good counts and getting us to swing and miss.”
Cleveland Guardians relief pitcher Eli Morgan reacts after a strike out against the Detroit Tigers in the seventh inning of game five of ALDS. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
Hunter Gaddis strikes out Kerry Carpenter in the 6th
Gaddis entered with runners on the corners and two out, but allowed an RBI single to Rogers and walked Trey Sweeney to bring Detroit’s Game 2 hero, Carpenter, to the plate with the bases loaded. With the Guardians protecting a 3-run lead, Gaddis attacked Carpenter with high fastballs, getting the Tigers DH to swing through a 96 mph heater up and out of the zone for strike three. The whiff upped Cleveland’s win probability by 8%.
Cleveland Guardians relief pitcher Hunter Gaddis pitches against the Detroit Tigers in the sixth inning of game five of ALDS. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
David Fry’s infield hit in the 5th
Fry authored one of the most memorable long balls of the season on Thursday when he launched a go-ahead pinch-hit home run at Comerica Park, but his soft single to second baseman Colt Keith in the fifth set the stage for two of the game’s most important at-bats by José Ramírez and Lane Thomas. Behind in the count 1-2, Fry swung defensively at a changeup that was in off the plate from Skubal and squibbed the ball to the right side of the mound. With Detroit’s infield defense pulled around to the left, Keith had to race over to field the ball, but had no play as Fry hustled down the line to load the bases. The play added 9.1% win probability for the Guardians and led to Skubal plunking Ramírez in his subsequent at-bat to force in Cleveland’s first run.
Cleveland Guardians designated hitter David Fry and left fielder Steven Kwan celebrate after center fielder Lane Thomas hit a grand slam against the Detroit Tigers in the fifth inning of game five of ALDS. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
Lane Thomas’ grand slam in the 5th
The indelible image of Game 5 will be Thomas watching the flight of the ball with Josh Naylor leaping in the air to celebrate behind him after Thomas ambushed a first-pitch sinker from Skubal and launched it 396 feet into the bleachers for the sixth grand slam in Cleveland postseason history.
The at-bat marked the game’s biggest swing in win probability, adding 24.3% for Cleveland.
Cleveland Guardians’ Lane Thomas, right, watches his grand slam in the fifth inning during Game 5 of baseball’s American League Division Series against the Detroit Tigers, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Dermer)AP
Thomas had popped out earlier in the game with the bases loaded against Skubal because he was looking for an offspeed pitch. This time, he was ready for the hard stuff.
“I thought in that (previous) situation he wasn’t going to come at me, and he proved me wrong,” Thomas said. “The next time I was like, ‘You know, I gotta be ready for the fastball. And he threw a good one that I could hit.”
Skubal told reporters the loss will sting for a while.
“It’s going to suck for a little bit,” Skubal said. “It’s going to suck for me a little longer because I put my team behind the eight-ball.”
Thomas said rounding the bases felt like something out of a fairytale.
“You dream of at-bats like that as a little kid, and to do it at this stage, in this game and to come through for the guys in the clubhouse, it feels awesome.”
