And according to newspaper “Israeli Yedioth Ahronoth warns James Actonassociate director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that this move may increase Tehran’s assertiveness rather than deter it.
The challenge facing Iranian facilities
Experts question whether Israel has the actual ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and whether such Attack It will achieve the desired results.
Acton explains that Iran relies on centrifuges for enrichment Uraniumunlike Nuclear reactors Which was targeted by Israel in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007.
Natanz facility: includes about 50,000 centrifuges.
Fordow Facility: Located under a mountain, it is believed to be fortified at a depth of between 60 and 80 metres, making it extremely difficult to destroy with conventional bombs.
Acton explains that Iran might respond to an attack by moving its facilities deeper underground or distributing centrifuges in regular industrial facilities, making them harder to track. This will force Israel to launch continuous attacks every year or two to maintain its advantage.
American support
Acton suggests that Israel may need the bunker-buster bomb (MOP) it has developed US To target facilities such as Fordow. However, even if the United States agreed to provide this bomb, its use would require American logistical and military support.
Experts warn that the attack could lead to Iran making a final decision to produce a nuclear weapon. “Performing this attack makes it very likely that Iran will make the decision to produce a nuclear weapon,” Acton says.
He added that Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon would enhance its boldness to attack Israel or target civilians with missiles, and could make it more open in supporting its regional proxies such as Hezbollah.
Diplomacy as an alternative
Both Acton and Professor Houshang Amir Ahmadi, president of the American-Iranian Council, agree that diplomacy is the best option. American officials prefer this path to avoid military escalation.
The US Secretary of State stated, Anthony BlinkenIn June 2024, Iran might produce enough fissile material within a week or two. However, Iran needs additional steps to convert these materials into… Nuclear weapon actual.
The future of the nuclear agreement
Although the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Acton sees the possibility of reaching a new agreement, even if it is less comprehensive than the previous agreement.
Acton warns that abandoning diplomacy may be likely if Donald Trump returns to power. On the other hand, it is believed that Kamala Harris, if she becomes president, will be more inclined to reach an agreement, but this is unlikely to be a priority for her.
Hit the oil infrastructure
According to Amir Ahmadi, another option is to target Iran’s oil infrastructure, noting that such an attack may have a greater impact than targeting the nuclear program. He explained that striking Iranian oil facilities could lead to the paralysis of the Iranian economy, and perhaps to regime change.
But he warned that such a move could lead to a loss of control over the situation, saying: “If that happens, Iran will be uncontrollable.”
