CLEVELAND, Ohio — Saturday night the Guardians could play their ninth and final postseason game of the year.
It has been a good run, a brave and exciting one, but the end is near.
They trail the Yankees in the American League Championship Series, 3-1, in the best-of-seven series. Should they extend the series, the last two games will be played at Yankee Stadium where they lost Games 1 and 2.
It’s tantalizing to think the World Series is only three wins away for the Guards, but it’s only one win away for the Yankees.
Whenever the end comes, the Guardians need to do some serious work on the starting rotation. That certainly isn’t a secret.
They came out of nowhere to win the AL Central this year with 92 wins in spite of an injured and under-performing rotation. They did it with Guards Ball offense, excellent defense and a hard-working bullpen.
But the bullpen looks gassed.
They’ve carried the weight for 170 games — 161 in the regular season and nine in the postseason. Catcher Austin Hedges says closer Emmanuel Clase is still the best pitcher in the world, but he’s been charged with a blown save and a loss in Games 3 and 4 of the ALCS. He also took another loss in Game 2 of the ALDS against Detroit.
Impenetrable Cade Smith gave up a three-run homer to Giancarlo Stanton in the pivotal sixth inning Friday night in Game 4.
In nine games this postseason the Guardians’ rotation is 0-3 with a 3.94 ERA in 29 2/3 innings. Not one of manager Stephen Vogt’s four starters have gone more than five innings.
The bullpen, meanwhile, has gone 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA, while ranking second among all playoffs teams with 49 1/3 innings pitched.
Starters Matthew Boyd and Tanner Bibee have thrown 11 2/3 and 10 innings, respectively, to lead the staff. Smith is right behind with 9 1/3 innings followed by Clase with seven.
The Guardians used 30 pitchers, including 14 starters, during the regular season. Vogt and the Guardians’ pitching coaches did a great job getting that staff through the regular season. As for the postseason, it’s been shown in the past that a mix-and-match bullpen can take a team on a deep run.
But it certainly wasn’t an ideal situation.
The rotation finished 24th in the big leagues with 805 innings pitched. Cleveland’s reputation for developing big-league ready starting ptichers took a hit.
In 2022, Cleveland’s rotation pitched the second most innings in the big leagues with 907. In 2019, they ranked third with 930 1/3 innings. In 2018, they ranked first with 993 2/3 innings.
So where do they start to rebuild for 2025?
Of Vogt’s four postseason starters, only Bibee and Gavin Williams are under team control. Boyd and Alex Cobb are free agents.
Boyd would certainly look good as a veteran presence on next year’s staff, but he’s a Scott Boras client which could make things difficult, but not impossible. Cobb, taken off the ALCS roster after his Game 1 start because of a sore back, had his moments as well, but he’s 37 and faced one injury after another this season.
Tanner Bibee went 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 31 starts this season for the Guards.AP
Let’s take a look at some of the candidates:
- Bibee: He went 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 31 starts in his second season not including his fourth postseason start on Saturday night. He should go to camp next year as the No. 1 starter.
- Shane Bieber: He’s still under team control until the final out of the World Series after missing this season with Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. There was interest on both sides about a new deal, but to what degree is unknown.
- Williams: A spring training injury to his right elbow injury put him behind schedule this year. If he can stay healthy, he can help the rotation.
- Ben Lively: Nice free agent signing. He made 29 starts and he’s arbitration eligible.
- Carlos Carrasco: Veteran free agent who gave the Guardians 21 starts. Not sure if he’ll be back.
- Logan Allen: He went 8-5 with a 5.73 ERA in 20 starts, but spent much of the second half at Class AAA Columbus.
- Triston McKenzie: Made the opening day rotation, like Allen, but after 16 starts was optioned to Columbus and never made it back to Cleveland.
- Joey Cantillo: The rookie lefty showed flashes in the rotation and bullpen this year. He made the ALDS and ALCS rosters so he did something wright.
- Doug Nikhazy: Cleveland’s No. 2 pick in 2021 reached Columbus this year. He went 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 games, including 14 starts, for the Clippers. The Guardians invited him to their training session at Progressive Field after they earned a postseason bye by winning the second seed.
It will be interesting to see how the front office fixes this rotation. They have rarely shown a willingness to chase starting pitching on the free agent market, and their top prospects are mostly position players.
It has been a rewarding season for the Guardians on all fronts, but challenges await this winter.
