Will the price of gold fall this November?

Gold investing hit an 11-year high in September 2023 and, at the time, it was easy to understand why. With inflation close to a decades-high and interest rates at their highest point in 22 years, many investors turned to safe-haven assets like gold to protect their portfolios. 

But even though inflation has since declined and one interest rate cut has already been issued this year, the demand for the precious metal has remained remarkably strong. This has been clear by the record price surge gold has experienced so far this year, jumping approximately 33% from where it was on January 1. At that point, gold was just $2,063.73 per ounce. But now it’s hovering near $2,800 with no clear end in sight.

Understanding this, then, both prospective investors looking to get in at a more affordable entry price and current investors benefiting from the remarkable price growth may be wondering about the short-term price trajectory. Specifically, will the price of gold fall this November? That’s what we’ll discuss below.

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Will the price of gold fall this November?

While it’s impossible to predict the price growth of any asset, let alone an alternative one like gold, it’s highly unlikely that the price of gold will fall this November. And there are multiple reasons why both experts expect the opposite to happen. Here’s why:

Geopolitical and domestic concerns: With conflicts abroad and a presidential election looming at home, gold is unlikely to drop in price this November. That’s because gold tends to maintain its value and even rise in price during volatile periods marked by geopolitical and domestic tensions, as we’re seeing now and are likely to continue to see in the months to come. Against this backdrop, then, don’t be surprised to see gold break additional records in the final weeks of 2024 – not fall in price.

Rising demand: Rising demand for an asset tends to cause the price to rise, not sink. And as can be seen with retailers like Costco running out of gold bars to sell, demand for physical gold, in particular, is elevated right now. Against this backdrop, it would be surprising for the price of gold to fall or even stagnate. Another uptick in November is more likely to happen.

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New dynamics: Those who invested in gold during the most recent inflationary cycle – and benefited from the protection it provided – understand that inflation can and will return again. And that could be at an unexpected moment, as has been seen in recent years. With new investors and new knowledge about gold investing prevalent, then, a drop in the price of the metal appears unlikely, at least not until the economy fully recovers from this recent high rate/high inflation period. And that won’t completely happen in November. 

The bottom line

In short: No, the price of gold is unlikely to fall this November. Because of these reasons and for a series of others, gold’s price is likely to continue to rise, at least in the short-term. That noted, many investors may be better served by getting started now versus waiting for an ideal entry point that never materializes. Remember that, long-term, gold prices only rise. So the “expensive” entry point for buying into gold today could become tomorrow’s “cheap” alternative. 

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