The company expects that its net sales during the coming year will be in the lower half of the forecast range, mainly due to lower demand from China.
The CFO explained ASMLRoger Dassin said that this decline is due to US restrictions on exports, in addition to China’s stockpiling of less advanced equipment to avoid these restrictions.
ASML has not sold its advanced machines known as extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography to China, but chipmakers in China have been buying less advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, because they are essential for making chips.
ASML derives a significant portion of its revenue from China, accounting for approximately 49 percent of its sales during 2024.
However, the company expects this percentage to decrease to about 20 percent in 2025.
The decline in Chinese sales was reflected in ASML’s third-quarter results.
Despite achieving net sales of $8.1 billion, which exceeded expectations, new orders fell below the expected level, causing the company’s shares to decline by 16 percent.
In September, it expanded Holland Export restrictions on advanced chip manufacturing equipment, further restricting ASML’s ability to sell and service DUV machines in China.
Analysts at Bank of America expect ASML’s sales in China to decline sharply by up to 48 percent in 2025, a much larger decline than previously expected.
Experts point out that while export restrictions initially boosted demand, future sales are now at risk, highlighting the broad impact of geopolitical factors on the global chip industry.
