Cavs ready for a defining season: Ethan Sands’ 2024-25 prediction

Core Four Under Pressure

At the heart of Cleveland’s success lies the Core Four, whose collective skillset rivals some of the best in the league. Mitchell, the franchise star, enters this season looking to change his postseason legacy, one that has seen him have personal success, but his teams have only gone so far. He yearns for his first Eastern Conference finals appearance. He’ll need his joyful backcourt running mate Garland to get there. In a stacked conference featuring the offensive powerhouses like Boston, New York and Philadelphia, the Cavs need their backcourt to hold their own defensively while continuing to light up the scoreboard.

Mitchell and Garland must improve as perimeter defenders to avoid being targeted by physical guards and wings across the East. This season, Atkinson is expected to emphasize rotations and schemes that hide those weaknesses without sacrificing offense — a delicate balance that could be the difference between a top-tier defense and one that falters when it matters most.

Thankfully for the Cavs, the other pairing Allen and Mobley, anchor a defense that thrives on interior dominance and has been top 10 in defensive rating over the last three seasons. The caveat: both must evolve offensively. The lack of perimeter shooting from the duo has long been an issue, especially in a league trending toward stretch bigs who can space the floor. Mobley, now entering his fourth year, carries the largest expectations of a breakout season, particularly as a potential stretch-four or point-forward in Atkinson’s system. His growth as a shooter, ball handler, and playmaker will determine if this group can keep defenses honest, especially in high-leverage situations.

But if Atkinson can’t unlock the full potential of this foursome, the front office may be forced into bold moves by the trade deadline, reshaping the roster to meet both organizational expectations and Mitchell’s desire for a deep postseason push.

Strus’ Injury and Early Rotation Changes

One of the most pressing questions entering this season is how the Cavs will navigate the absence of Max Strus, their starting small forward, who will miss at least the first six weeks with a right ankle sprain. Strus, acquired last summer to provide the perimeter shooting and spacing this team desperately needed, has already become a glue piece for the Core Four.

While Strus’s injury isn’t season-defining, it will force Atkinson to experiment with his rotations early. The small forward position is now wide open, with players like Dean Wade, Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro in line for increased minutes. Wade, who offers versatility as a three-and-D option, is the early favorite to fill the void. And, to me, he’s the clear choice to bring the gravity and shooting capability that they need on offense while being a sure thing on defense alongside Allen and Mobley, being able to switch against nearly all defenders as Wade stands at 6-foot-10. However, as Atkinson noted on Monday, “We haven’t decided yet,” leaving the door open for changes to the starting lineup based on matchups, chemistry, and performance as the season unfolds.

LeVert’s familiarity with Atkinson from their Brooklyn days could give him an edge, as the Cavs’ new head coach may lean on that established trust when making early lineup decisions.

“I texted him the other day, I said, ‘Here we go, you gotta do it all,’” Atkinson said after Monday’s practice. “You might start. You might come off the bench. I think Caris has accepted that role, and he’s done it well for the Cavs. I know, in Brooklyn, he did it well for us. He understands that’s his role. He’s the ultimate team guy, ultimate high-character player. I don’t worry about him too much.”

Okoro, who needed the most time to adjust to Atkinson’s offense after a late contract signing this summer, has the defensive prowess to guard top guards and wings in the league. But he doesn’t have the same gravitational pull that Strus does on offense when moving on the perimeter. If Okoro can find consistency from beyond the arc, he could solidify himself as a key contributor, especially in Strus’ absence.

With Strus sidelined, the real intrigue lies in how his unavailability reshapes the minutes distribution. Figuring out which players thrive together during this stretch will be key to maintaining momentum through the season.

Why top teams in the East may struggle

The Eastern Conference remains a gauntlet of top-tier teams. The Celtics are in a tier of their own after breezing to the Finals last season, while other teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, and Philadelphia 76ers all pose serious threats — but each with noticeable flaws.

The Knicks, who earned the second seed last season with 50 wins, face injuries across multiple positions and a Mikal Bridges shooting slump that could complicate their offense, despite acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns.

Age and availability will be crucial factors for the next two teams, as they are likely to prioritize getting their key players to the playoffs rather than accumulating regular season wins.

The 76ers, now pairing Paul George with Joel Embiid, have injury management concerns, especially with Embiid potentially slated to sit out back-to-backs, limiting their consistency over the season.

Meanwhile, the Bucks, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, will need to prove they’ve rebounded from last season’s first-round exit, with Khris Middleton still not at full strength.

Season Prediction: Breaking Through or Breaking Apart?

Despite a potentially rocky start as they navigate rotation adjustments and offensive kinks, the Cavs are well-positioned to compete for a top spot in the East. Their favorable early-season schedule should allow them to experiment with different lineups and find their rhythm before facing tougher competition in January and February.

The Cavs will finish the season 51-31, securing the second seed in the East. The expectation is for the Core Four to have a breakthrough and help the Cavs avoid the top-seeded Celtics until the Eastern Conference finals. Although they will fall, it will be another step in the right direction for a team consistently improving year after year.

However, if Cleveland stalls again in the second round or fails to gain an upward trajectory in late January and nearing the trade deadline, expect serious discussions about reconfiguring the roster — if it hadn’t already been altered.

For now, the focus is on maximizing the roster and ensuring Atkinson’s first year at the helm sets the stage for the Cavs to rise — or forces them to rethink their future.