David Staples: Will Nenshi wise up about out-of-control immigration

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Almost all Albertans used to agree that immigration was a good thing. That consensus is now in tatters.

Support for immigration is down across Canada. A new poll by Maru Public Opinion for CityNews found that almost half of respondents in Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and Toronto prefer reducing the level of all types of immigrants over the next two years. Twenty-two per cent want to ban all new immigration.

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This trend comes as Statistics Canada reports that Canada has suddenly jumped to more than three million non-permanent residents, up from just 1.66 million in 2021, and up from 935,000 in Stephen Harper’s last year in power, 2014.

Economics professor Mikal Skuterud of the University of Waterloo charts a steep rise in non-permanent residents under Justin Trudeau. Under prime ministers from Pierre Trudeau to Harper, the percentage of non-permanent residents in Canada was no more than three per cent of the total population. Under Justin Trudeau, they’ve shot up to more than seven per cent.

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Both of Alberta’s main political parties have long favoured welcoming more newcomers. Premier Danielle Smith said as recently as last January that she hoped to see Alberta’s population grow to 10 million people by 2050. The province will mainly draw migrants from other provinces but also economic recruits from India, China and South Africa, Smith said, with them choosing us because Alberta is a bastion of liberty and prosperity.

“Let’s have an aggressive target to double our population,” Smith said on the Shaun Newman podcast, adding the greater population will increase our political clout.

Smith has now moved away from this position, recently saying we are being overrun and can’t keep up with the demand for housing and government services.

At least as bullish on immigration as Smith last winter was Naheed Nenshi, now leader of the NDP. Last January, Neshi debated  former Alberta premier Jason Kenney at a C.D Howe Institute event on whether or not immigration levels were too high to support the economic well-being of new immigrants or that of the broader population.

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Nenshi said higher levels of immigration are good and necessary. The choice, he said, comes down to us collectively having more babies, asking people to work into their 70s, becoming a lot poorer, or having a lot more immigration. “The only option is to increase immigration,” he said.

We should not blame immigrants for failing to integrate, he said. Instead we have to do better to provide housing, language training and bring about a restructuring of our society to better help newcomers. “These problems occur regardless of the levels of immigration,” he said of the current turmoil. “They occur at today’s levels. They occurred at yesterday’s levels.”

Nenshi also argued we must allow newcomers to work in jobs they’ve been trained to do in their previous countries, something the current system fails to do. “It is designed to ensure that newcomers fill the jobs that Canadians don’t want.”

Canadians shouldn’t embrace immigration just because the other options are so poor, Nenshi said, but should do so willingly, with the understanding “that we’re not doing a good enough job of helping people live to their potential.”

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I asked the NDP if Nenshi’s position on immigration had changed since this debate but was told he’s unavailable for comment.

What to make of his position? He’s dead right on a few things.

In 2000, there were 30.7 million Canadians and we had 330,000 births. In 2023, now with 40 million Canadians, we had 360,000 births. Our birth rate is indeed dropping. If we cut off all immigration our economy will crash.

It’s also the case we could do better to integrate newcomers. It’s a worthy goal — and the Trudeau Liberals have shared Nenshi’s worthy goal. But goals are one thing, solid results another.

The rapid influx of newcomers has contributed to our crises in housing affordability and massive inflation. Such economic issues hit newcomers especially hard. As Kenney put it in the debate, “It’s immoral and unethical to invite newcomers here to face homelessness. We have refugees sleeping on the streets.”

At the same time, our immigration system is so overwhelmed with newcomers it’s not possible for the government to ensure we’re bringing in people with the skills and values to fit in and build a tolerant and prosperous Canada.

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It was entirely predictable Canada would buckle and break under such strain, but this failure seems to have caught the Trudeau Liberals by surprise.

When so many people are madly treading water just to stay afloat, it’s not possible to help out ever more struggling people jumping into the pool.

Smith at least has recognized we’ve got to abandon Trudeau’s reckless immigration scheme. Will Nenshi do the same?

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