Edmonton city council voting bloc still dominant but weakening: data

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Analysis of Edmonton city council voting records shows two councillors continue to act as an unofficial opposition relative to most others while a group of five remains the driver of council votes.

Figures have been drawn from the voting records published on the city’s open data site and are measured from the start of this council’s term in October 2021 through to last week.

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Unanimous votes, which amount to around four in five of the nearly 4,000 total votes, are excluded from the analysis.

The numbers show all councillors vote together at least 57 per cent of the time and are on the winning side of council votes more than three-quarters of the time, save for councillors Jennifer Rice and Karen Principe, a dynamic that’s emerged since this council debuted.

That pair has the weakest overall voting correlation with other councillors, sharing 50 per cent or more agreement with just three other council members: Sarah Hamilton, Tim Cartmell, and Andrew Knack.

The two vote together nearly three-quarters of the time but are only on the winning side of non-unanimous council votes around half of the time.

That contrasts with Mayor Amarjeet Sohi and councillors Keren Tang, Jo-Anne Wright, and Anne Stevenson, who each have won council votes at a more than 85 per cent rate, with the remaining council members — except for Rice and Principe — all within 10 per cent of that mark.

Rice was the only councillor to lose more non-unanimous votes than she won, with a win rate of just under 50 per cent.

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Analysis in October 2023 showed a group of six councillors was leading council votes and voting the same way 75 per cent of the time — and winning at least 84 per cent of votes. That group comprised the mayor and councillors Tang, Knack, Wright, Aaron Paquette, and Ashley Salvador.

This year’s figures show that relationship has changed somewhat, with Stevenson replacing Knack and Paquette falling out as well.

Based on the same vote agreement and win percentage criteria as last year, the group’s numbers have been thinned to five: Mayor Sohi along with councillors Tang, Salvador, Stevenson, and Wright.

Sohi appears to be the leading force on council, winning nearly 90 per cent of votes — the most of any council member.

That winning percentage figure, however, should not be interpreted as a measure of councillor effectiveness given how some voters may want their elected representatives to vote against the wishes of other councillors.

The strongest correlation between voting records was between neighbouring Ward Métis Coun. Salvador and Ward O-day’min Coun. Stevenson, who voted together just under 90 per cent of the time.

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Salvador also had the two next strongest links with Ward Karhiio’s Coun. Tang (85 per cent) and Ward Sspomitapi’s Coun. Wright (83 per cent).

The weakest voting correlation was between Ward Ipiihkoohkanipiaohtsi Coun. Rice and Ward papastew Coun. Michael Janz at 31 per cent.

The data reflects the absence of parties at the local government level, something the province is instituting in Calgary and Edmonton for the 2025 elections despite widespread opposition, including 70 per cent of respondents to its own survey.

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