In this context, a report published by the British newspaper “The Guardian” highlighted a warning United Nations From that Gaza’s economy He witnessed “total devastation” due to… War The conflict between Israel and Hamas has been ongoing for more than a year, anticipating that a return to pre-conflict levels may take 350 years.
According to a report on the economic costs of the war prepared by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).UNCTAD) of the United Nations, the fighting that has been ongoing since October 7 last year has led to the destruction of the remnants of the economy and infrastructure in Gaza.
The report submitted to the UN General Assembly last month stated that economic activity across Gaza, which was weak before the war, has completely stopped, except for minimal Human services Health and food provided under conditions of severe water, fuel and electricity shortages, and significant restrictions on access. He explained that:
- Construction sector It decreased by 96 percent, and agricultural production by 93 percent.
- Industrial production It decreased by 92 percent, and the services sector declined by 76 percent.
- At the same time, the rate reached Unemployment 81.7 percent in the first quarter of 2024, a rate that the United Nations said is likely to worsen or persist as long as the war continues.
repercussions
The report confirmed that the intensive military operations in Gaza resulted in an unprecedented humanitarian, environmental and social catastrophe and pushed Gaza from a state of lack of development to complete destruction.
The report stressed that the long-term repercussions of these events will continue for years to come, and it may take decades for Gaza to return to the situation it was in before.
He stated that after reaching a ceasefire, the return to direction would take place Growth Which was recorded in the period 2007-2022 means that it will take 350 years for Gaza to restore its GDP to its previous level.
The report said that the past 12 months of the war followed a period between 2007 and 2022 when Gaza’s economy was severely affected by restrictions imposed by Israel on the movement of goods and people.
The report stated that by the end of July 2024:
- 88 percent of school buildings sustained some damage, 21 out of 36 hospitals were out of service, and 45 out of 105 primary health facilities were out of service.
- More than 62 percent of residential buildings were damaged or destroyed, and more than 59 percent of water, sanitation and hygiene sector infrastructure was severely damaged, impacting water and sanitation services.
She said UNCTAD In the fourth quarter of 2023, Gaza recorded its largest economic recession in its modern history, and the GDP contracted by 80.8 percent compared to the third quarter of the year, while the GDP per capita decreased by 81.4 percent during the same period.
Humanitarian catastrophe
In this context, Tamara Haddad, an analyst specializing in Palestinian-Israeli affairs, confirmed in exclusive statements to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website that Gaza is facing a humanitarian catastrophe that has never occurred in the history of peoples and countries, in light of the continued shooting, and she explained that:
- Health sectorThe war caused the destruction of more than 80 percent of the infrastructure of the Strip and Gaza’s hospitals. Most of the hospitals are out of service, and what works of them is working partially as a result of the direct destruction. Qualified medical staff have also been lost due to the forced displacement to which the Palestinian people are exposed and the lack of capabilities. Thus, the Electricity, fuel, and the lack of safe water, in addition to overflowing sewage, the accumulation of solid waste, and the spread of epidemics, have greatly exhausted the health sector.
- The educational sector: More than 600,000 students were deprived of education as a result of the destruction of 80 percent of the infrastructure of schools and universities, as most of the schools affiliated with UNRWA were completely destroyed as a result of the continuous aerial bombardment on Gaza without stopping, and also the universities no longer exist as a result of the continuous targeting of them. And bombed it.
- Agricultural sectorGaza is no longer suitable for agriculture, as before October 7, 2023, reliance was placed on the local and home economy and the cultivation of strawberries, which are continuously exported from Gaza abroad, not to mention other crops, as a result of the damage to 70 percent of agricultural land in Gaza, or the equivalent of 10,183 hectares, as The rate of agricultural damage has reached unprecedented levels.
- The Gaza Port was subjected to severe damage, as the majority of fishing boats were destroyed. The residents of the Gaza Strip relied on fishing to manage their living conditions and achieve self-sufficiency.
- Animal production: Only one percent, meaning 34 heads of chickens, remain alive, due to the cessation of commercial poultry production to a large extent, with only limited families owning them. As for the sheep sector, only 40 percent remain, while goats account for 37 percent.
- Construction sector: There is almost complete destruction of the Gaza Strip, and what remains is a small part that Israel did not enter by land.
She said that Palestinian economy It has become in a state of complete exhaustion due to war, poverty, and unemployment, noting that at the level of companies, it has been completely destroyed, which has led to the strengthening of the state of extreme poverty.
She stated that all of Gaza is destroyed and needs ten years and more to remove the effects of destruction, and even if the removal is accomplished, this requires elements, most important of which is stopping the war and bringing in funding and projects, pointing out that this requires huge funds estimated at $85 billion.
She stressed that if the war on Gaza stops, the growth trend will not return except with the entry of financial liquidity that restores life, or at least the minimum food and health requirements. She stated that reconstruction will not take place except with an international regional consensus within a future vision to prevent the return of the war on Gaza, expecting that this will require many years to restore the situation as it was before, especially since rebuilding Gaza begins from scratch, which means waiting for the Palestinian citizen to build a house. He sheltered his family for years, preferring to leave Gaza and live outside it.
Reconstruction
The Palestinian academic, Dr. Ayman Al-Raqab, also stated in exclusive statements to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website that the Gaza Strip was subjected to complete destruction at the level of Infrastructure The economy declined significantly, describing the talk about needing 360 years to restore economic growth as perhaps a “flight of imagination,” in reference to “exaggerated estimates.”
He justified this by saying: There are countries that emerged over decades and developed greatly. For example, Israel was founded 76 years ago, and has now become one of the developed countries that is witnessing great progress in all fields, especially Economy Health and military manufacturing.
He stressed that if funds are available, it is possible to rebuild and develop Gaza again, explaining that if the reconstruction and construction of it actually begins, this will lead to a significant recovery of the economy, and the subsequent stage will begin to redevelop the economy and bring it back to recovery, which may require a period ranging from Three to four years.
He stressed that the aforementioned period is sufficient for the success of the economic recovery process, but that is on the condition that the necessary funds are available and the presence of Arab and foreign companies working on development, and after five or ten years it will return better than before, continuing: Gaza could become the Singapore Arab project.
Factors on which the return to pre-war levels depends
Speaking to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website, Dr. Nidal Al-Shaar, economic expert and chief economist at ACY, confirmed that it is not possible to determine the period of time that economies need to recover and return to their previous state, explaining that this depends on many factors, including what is internal. Including what is external.
He said that returning Gaza to the situation it was in and estimating the time period for that requires setting specific and realistic assumptions, explaining that among these assumptions are:
- Ending the armed conflict and economic blockade.
- Gaza is considered a safe area by the international community and under international guarantees.
- The return of displaced people to their areas.
- Forming a donor group of countries to finance reconstruction.
- Liberalize trade restrictions and allow the inflow of foreign capital.
- Establishing new laws for the business market.
- Allowing the transfer of technology and modern methods of production.
- Compensation of those affected by the international community in a fair, just and clearly economically oriented manner, where the objectives of compensation are clear.
He stressed that there are other factors that may arise during the reconstruction period, which will be possible to deal with in a safe political atmosphere.
He pointed out that there are many experiences that can be benefited from, including, for example, the experience of Germany after World War II, and the Marshall Plan for Construction, which significantly shortened the distance and duration of recovery and enabled Germany to be a strong country that sat on the throne of the European economy.
He stated that relying on pre-war growth rates and using them to anticipate the recovery and reconstruction process and then deducing the necessary time period is not devoid of superficiality, stressing that setting a period of 350 years as the time period for Gaza’s growth to return to what it was was an impractical or inaccurate conclusion.
He explained that history confirms that people are capable of creating an economic renaissance at amazing speeds if objective factors are available for this and the involvement of rich countries in the reconstruction process, pointing out that, for example, countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Rwanda are good examples of rapid success in recovery and reconstruction.
He also stressed that it cannot be assumed that the people of a devastated region want to return to the situation that existed before the destruction, as all experiences prove that reconstruction is usually accompanied by hopes and plans for improvement and an attempt to leapfrog the past and bring about economic development that far exceeds what things were like before the war. Stressing that reconstruction provides an opportunity to make qualitative economic and technological transfers and use modern methods in development and construction.