Keith Gerein: Edmonton’s mayor steps up, but will he take a swing?

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One of the big mysteries that’s garnering much discussion in Edmonton’s political circles these days is whether Mayor Amarjeet Sohi will run for a second term.

That’s typically a simple choice for first-term mayors, but not so much in this case.

Sohi has surely seen the polls the rest of us have and knows it won’t be an easy road to re-election. Nor is the city hall environment a lot of fun to govern these days with financial and political pressures at every turn.

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(Should he step down, it would be the first time an Edmonton rookie mayor has done so since Vincent Dantzer in 1968.)

It sounds like Sohi won’t reveal his intentions until after council’s budget deliberations this fall — ostensibly to minimize the politicization of that process, but also possibly because he doesn’t yet know his intentions.

In the meantime, all we can do is speculate. And in that vein, the mayor’s announcement last week of a new advocacy campaign has some wondering if it’s an indication that he is indeed planning to fight it out on the ballot a year from now.

The campaign is called the Fair Compensation Project, which aims, in Sohi’s words, to better inform residents of “several ways that the City of Edmonton is not being fairly compensated for the services we provide” to the provincial government.

The big piece of that is the province’s failure to pay its full share of property taxes on government buildings in recent years, even though such facilities benefit from snow clearing, transit, street lighting, police and so on. Since 2019, those unpaid taxes have added up to around $80 million, which would solve a lot of the city’s financial problems.

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At some point, there is also room for the campaign to detail how the province has shortchanged the city on infrastructure funding, squeezed municipal revenue streams, and downloaded responsibilities for health, housing, and social services. As just one example in the last category, Edmonton’s fire department has essentially become a pseudo-EMS service in responding to about $28-million worth of medical calls a year.

To be clear, there is nothing particularly new about any of this information. The campaign is really just a better-organized collection of grievances the mayor and council have talked about at length for the last couple of years.

What’s new is the strategy.

‘A little out of character’ for Sohi

Rather than a council-directed or a sanctioned initiative, this is something Sohi is doing on his own, at least to start.

In fact, several councillors seemed surprised when the mayor held his campaign unveiling last week. It was the first time they had heard details of the effort, which is unusual for a mayor who has generally preferred to act through consensus and collaboration.

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“While the project and website (are) run out of the mayor’s office, the goal is to have members of council, community leaders, etc. as active participants,” a spokesman for Sohi’s office wrote in an email.

Indeed, one of my main criticisms of Sohi has been a lack of political gravitas at times to drive his agenda, including a reluctance or incapability to fully exploit the platform he has been given.

As such, I am not going to slam him for finally taking a step toward doing so, even if the execution is a little clunky.

In effect, this is Sohi’s most aggressive move to date in applying some political pressure of his own, rather than being on the receiving end.

Whether it’ll work or not is an open question.

The messaging on offer here is not directly for the ears of the province — Premier Danielle Smith is well aware of what Sohi wants — and is instead more designed to galvanize Edmontonians.

“This is maybe a little out of character (for Sohi) … but at the same time, I’ve never had more people during the summer break say, ‘Hey, that nine per cent tax increase really sucked, but I also hear the province isn’t paying its fair share,’” Coun. Andrew Knack said.

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“The mayor’s message is clearly getting through to people, and I think the province is now feeling the pressure a little bit.

“I expect the province soon enough is going to follow through and deliver because that is his approach. He is not trying to make the province the villain per se. He’s trying to make sure people realize they have an important role in this conversation.”

(For the record, I am less optimistic about the UCP government’s follow-through potential in the year before the civic election.)

Eye on election 2025

That said, I would be cautious in viewing this new advocacy as a sign of Sohi’s future political plans.

Sure, such a campaign could pay election dividends if it leads to financial relief for Edmonton or at least manages to redirect some of the blame for recent tax hikes. On that front, council passed a savvy motion from the mayor late Friday that if the province does pay its property taxes, the city would use that revenue to reduce future tax increases and replenish its emergency fund.

The campaign could also put potential mayoral rival Coun. Tim Cartmell in a tough spot, forcing him to either support the mayor’s initiative or explain why he doesn’t.

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Alternatively, it’s possible to see this increased aggression as an indication Sohi won’t seek a second term, which would allow him to do what he wants without political consequences.

Either way, my sense is the Fair Compensation Project is not really election-focused, though that could later change.

Right now, it’s more about the dynamics of the city’s upcoming budget, trying to reduce a projected seven per cent tax hike for 2025, and putting Edmonton on a better financial footing long term — no matter who is the mayor.

“After three years, I think he’s in a position to be a little more vocal and take a little more lead on this,” Knack said.

In other words, we’ll have to wait on whether this is a sign of things to come. But for the moment, it’s refreshing to see.

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