TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA/NEXSTAR) — Hurricane Helene formed Wednesday morning as it moved north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Forecast models predict that the storm will make landfall as a potential Category 3 Hurricane somewhere in the Big Bend region of Florida or the Florida Panhandle.
However, as Helene continues moving forward, there will likely still be changes in its path that will affect where it is headed.
Meteorologists with Nexstar’s WFLA track “wobbles,” or small movements, on the system’s path. Those wobbles determine where the hurricane is headed.
Helene is expected to bring “devastating” hurricane-force winds to northern Florida and southern Georgia, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Helene is advancing quickly, and is currently forecast to reach the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians as it moves over the U.S.
NOAA officials are warning that Hurricane Helene’s large size will potentially create a life-threatening storm surge along entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend.
“The highest inundation of greater than 10 ft is expected along the Florida Big Bend Coast,” NOAA announced at 11 a.m. EDT. “Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.”
While the movements may seem negligible at first glance, these wobbles do make a big difference when they compound into a change in the storm’s path.
This was the case when WFLA’s Max Defender 8 first launched the wobble tracker for Hurricane Ian, a Category 5 hurricane that was originally expected to make a direct hit on Tampa Bay but “wobbled” further south to its landfall in Charlotte County, Florida.
The wobble tracker watches the motion of hurricanes and tropical storms by using a combination of data from satellites, radar, the forecast trajectory, and the previous path the storm is on, to give an indication how the path is changing in real time.
The WFLA Wobble Tracker will remain actively streaming 24/7 until Helene makes landfall.
Portions of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula were forecast to see hurricane and tropical storm conditions. Social media users in Cancun were able to capture footage of the storm, which moved over the city overnight.
