For eleven months now, Israel and Hezbollah have been firing at each other in Lebanon almost every day. It is a constant sequence of mutual attacks along the Lebanese-Israeli border: when Hezbollah fires rockets at northern Israel, Israel responds with air strikes, mostly in southern Lebanon – and vice versa. People have been killed on both sides, and tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border have had to leave the area. Despite everything, the shelling has not yet escalated into a large-scale, open war.
Until now – because this fragile balance was severely tested this week by several Israeli attacks or attacks attributed to Israel in Lebanon. First, thousands of pagers exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday, then dozens of radios used by Hezbollah members to communicate on Wednesday. On Friday, the Israeli military attacked a meeting of Hezbollah members in a suburb of Beirut – two seven-story buildings collapsed.
In total, at least 85 people were killed and more than 3,000 injured in the incidents. Hezbollah confirmed the death of its military commander Ibrahim Akil, and according to Israeli sources, it lost a total of 16 commanders from its leadership in Friday’s attack alone. What are the consequences of the Israeli attacks?
The consequences for Hezbollah’s combat readiness:
Hundreds of Hezbollah members are believed to have been incapacitated by the explosions of the technical devices in recent days. Even Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah admitted that these had dealt the militia a severe blow. Observers, however, do not see the militia as incapacitated. According to Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center, Hezbollah is not a centralized organization. Rather, its units, like those of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, carry out attacks against Israel autonomously.
An analyst close to Hezbollah says that Hezbollah does not need to regroup after the heavy blows. It is still ready to fight and the attacks have had “no impact” on the security and military infrastructure, says Kassim Kassir.
The direct consequences of the attacks – how does Hezbollah react:
Experts believe Hezbollah is under pressure. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah said on Thursday that the attacks amounted to a declaration of war and that retaliation was guaranteed. Analyst Kassir assesses the situation as critical. “We are facing an open escalation and anything is possible,” he says.
Hage Ali also sees the need for a reaction from Hezbollah. In his view, however, the signs are pointing towards “conflict avoidance,” says the Middle East expert. “I doubt that Hezbollah will react in a way that will trigger a major Israeli operation,” he says. The militia does not want to give the government in Jerusalem a pretext at this moment.
Most recently, after Israel killed high-ranking Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr at the end of July, Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets at Israel, most of which were intercepted, says Hage Ali. Hezbollah could now respond in a similar way, for example with attacks near important military bases. Just this morning, the militia announced that it had attacked an Israeli arms company and the Israeli military base Ramat David, both near the port city of Haifa, in response to “repeated Israeli aggression in various regions of Lebanon.” It appears to continue to avoid large civilian targets in its attacks.
The consequences in Israel:
After the serious failures of the intelligence services and the military to foresee the Hamas massacre on October 7, many people in Israel view the recent attacks in Lebanon as a long-awaited success.
Others criticize the fact that they are of no use to the approximately 60,000 Israelis who have been expelled from the north, and that Israel must instead urgently reach an agreement with Hamas in the Gaza war. This would very likely also pacify the conflict in the north with Hezbollah, which says it has been firing rockets at northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas since the beginning of the Gaza war. In southern Lebanon, around 90,000 people have been expelled from their homes by fighting.
Israel has a big lead over Hezbollah in terms of intelligence and technology. The country is also considered to be superior militarily. Some voices in Israel are calling for a limited deployment of ground troops in southern Lebanon to establish a buffer zone and push Hezbollah back from the border. However, some observers in Israel warn that the army has not yet defeated the much smaller enemy Hamas in the Gaza Strip and that a second war could exhaust the military and the population. It is also questionable whether Israeli ground troops would stop Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel.
The consequences of further escalation for Lebanon and Israel:
Lebanon is in the worst economic crisis in its history, the country’s political leadership is weak, and there has been no president for two years. A possible open war between Hezbollah and Israel would plunge the country into an even deeper crisis. Hezbollah acts like a state within a state and has great political influence. The Lebanese state has little leverage in the areas it controls. This includes the south of Lebanon.
Observers warn that a large-scale war in Lebanon, like in Israel, would bring many casualties and considerable destruction, perhaps never seen before.
That is why many decision-makers in Israel are reportedly against a large-scale deployment of Israeli troops in the neighboring country, which has been the subject of renewed speculation since the attacks of the past few days. Also because the country reportedly fears arms embargoes and other international sanctions.
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