The Middle East is closely monitoring possible scenarios for this confrontation, as analysts believe that the first strike may target Iran’s missile capabilities.
According to estimates by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the expected strike may include targeting strategic missile bases in Iran, such as the Arak, Isfahan, and Imam Ali bases, which are believed to have been the source of the missiles that targeted Israel a few days ago.
Potential targets also include dozens of missile bases, air defense bases, and space missile launch centers spread throughout Iran.
But there is another scenario that may be painful for Iran, which is targeting local gasoline refining and production facilities, which could lead to creating a severe internal fuel crisis.
The strike could also include oil refineries and export ports, which could deal a severe blow to Iran’s already weak economy, which is suffering from the consequences of international economic sanctions.
It is no secret that Iran is facing increasing internal popular anger due to the economic deterioration, which Iranians see as a result of the regime’s support for armed factions in the country. The Middle EastWhich brought the country into the sanctions tunnel.
Previous events, such as the 2018 Grand Bazaar uprising that began with merchants and spread to the headquarters of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Pasteur Street, indicate that the Iranian people may move against the regime if the economic situation deteriorates further.
The scenario of igniting an internal uprising to topple the regime is not new, and it is the preferred scenario of the United States, which imposed rounds of sanctions on Iran to achieve this goal.
Also, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu He did not hide his desire to change the ruling regime in Iran, and in previous speeches he pointed out the importance of targeting the Revolutionary Guard and security and intelligence centers to achieve this goal.
By striking oil installations and Revolutionary Guard bases, Israel may be able to weaken the Iranian regime’s internal security grip and create the conditions for angry popular movements to topple power, especially if the United States continues to impose more sanctions.
However, the challenge for Netanyahu is that achieving this scenario will take time, which may not be in his interest, as Netanyahu believes that the current opportunity may not be repeated, especially with the approaching US elections, and the support that Israel receives from its allies to respond to Iran.
