The hardest part is yet to come. Jostled by the PSV Tuesday evening at the Parc des Princes (1-1), the PSG does not reassure himself before starting the bulk of his European campaign. With four points laboriously gleaned from three matches, the capital club failed to get into a good position before facing Atlético Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester City. To the point of qualifying for the final phase of the Champions League in danger? Not quite.
If the men of Luis Enrique17th before Wednesday’s matches, have had a difficult start, the hope of experiencing a European spring still remains alive. In this new formula where 24 clubs will see the final phase (8 directly in the round of 16 and 16 in the play-offs, a sort of round of 16), PSG is still a candidate for qualification. In any case, this is what Opta reveals, at the origin of 50,000 simulations of the matches which remain to be played between now and January 29, the end date of the main phase of the C1.
Dams in sight
The algorithm in fact considers that 8 or 9 points could be enough for a team to finish between 9 and 24th place and thus be a jump-off. The Parisian club would then only be missing 4 or 5 additional units to qualify for the next round. Points that the club could obtain against more affordable opponents such as Salzburg or Stuttgart. For comparison, Monaco (7 points) and Brest (6 points) could well ensure their presence in the play-offs before the resident of the Parc des Princes, and even consider going higher.
If the Parisians were to post their ticket for the play-offs, and not for the eighth, their ranking will also be of great importance in relation to the opponent they will have to face. As required by the reform of the Champions League, the clubs classified from 9th to 16th place will in fact have the advantage of being seeded, to meet an opponent classified between 17th to 24th place and to play the match return home.
Currently in 17th position, Luis Enrique’s players would have to face 16th, Stuttgart, if the ranking were to be finalized today. Please note that there are no restrictions in terms of drawing lots for the final phase: Brest, Lille, Monaco and Paris will be able to compete from the “sixteenths”. Once all the qualifiers are known for the round of 16, the draw is called “complete”, and all the teams will know their potential opponents until the final.
15 or 16 points for the top 8
Opta also adds that 15 or 16 points would ensure a place in the top 8 and direct qualification to the round of 16. A quota that PSG could venture to dream of, but which seems far from reality as its calendar goes to toughen up in future meetings. The receptions of Atlético Madrid and Manchester City, interspersed with a trip to Bayern Munich, will force the Rouge et Bleu to a feat if they do not want to have to play two additional matches in February.
The statistical analysis algorithm today gives only a 19.2% chance to PSG of achieving this and leans more towards qualifying for the play-offs (68.6%). A direct qualification for the round of 16 seems to be moving away for Bradley Barcola and his teammates. It will be necessary to achieve an almost flawless performance, with at least 11 points to be taken out of 15 possible to hope to conclude the main phase in the top 8.
And the risk of elimination, then? It is relatively low (12.2% according to Opta), taking into account the fact that only 12 of the 36 teams will be eliminated from the group stage. For this to happen, PSG would have to have a series of defeats in their last 5 matches.