(NEXSTAR) – As we enter the colder months of the year, national meteorologists are getting a clearer picture of what winter might look like. This winter was originally thought to be dominated by the La Niña phenomenon. But now, the Climate Prediction Center believes it will be a “weak and a short duration La Niña” – if it appears at all.
In an update issued Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center lowered its chances of a La Niña occurring this fall and winter. The odds it forms by November are now at 60%.
Conditions are looking less favorable for a strong La Niña, the agency added. A weaker La Niña means we’re less likely to see La Niña’s typical impacts: cold, wetter weather up north and dry, warmer weather down south.
In the absence of La Niña or its counterpart, El Niño, conditions are “ENSO-neutral.” When that happens, “the crystal ball is even blurrier than usual,” Michelle L’Heureux, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center, told Nexstar in an interview last year.
“ENSO-neutral effectively means that conditions across Tropical Pacific are closer to average, so there isn’t a big disruption in the atmospheric circulation that is offered by El Niño or La Niña.”
The absence of those disruptions leaves room for other climatological forces to prevail, L’Heureux explained, such as global warming and natural seasonal variability.
The Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley could still see a cold, wet winter. The southern states could still be warm and the Southwest could have drought issues. All those outcomes are still possible, they’re just less of a sure bet with a weak and short La Niña, or if La Niña doesn’t materialize after all.
The absence of La Niña and El Niño makes putting together long-range forecasts even more challenging, and it’s a split from what we’ve seen the past several winters. Last year we had a strong El Niño, and the three winters before that were back-to-back-to-back La Niñas.
It’s too early for the Climate Prediction Center to have released its winter seasonal outlook, but they have issued their predictions for broad weather patterns between October and December. It calls for warmer-than-average conditions for most states.
