The region, which suffers from complex security and political challenges, requires diplomatic investments and international coordination efforts to ensure stability.
While some candidates promise to focus on promoting regional stability through partnerships and diplomatic deterrence, there remains concern that the United States may withdraw from its traditional role as guarantor of security in the region. The Middle EastWhich may lead to a political and security vacuum that further complicates the situation.
According to an analysis published by the German News Agency, Sanam Vakil, a political researcher and director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), says that when stability in the Middle East seems distant, this causes dissatisfaction with partners. US The management of conflicts in the region has fallen from its list of priorities.
With Israel’s war in Gaza reaching its first year, a new front opening in Lebanon, and the emergence of an imminent direct escalation between Israel and Iran, everyone hopes that the next American president will adopt a bolder role.
Vakil points out that in particular, leaders in the UK are looking to…Europe And the Middle East is up to whoever takes over the White House to make greater efforts to curb Israel, achieve self-determination, if not a peace process, for the Palestinians, and contain the interventionist role of Iran and its nuclear program.
Vakil says that the past year has shown the danger of ignoring or marginalizing mounting and prominent regional challenges, and while it is naive to expect that… Kamala Harris or Donald Trump Priority for conflict management The Middle East On issues such as immigration, the economy, the war in Ukraine, or competition with China, the past year has demonstrated the danger of ignoring or marginalizing these growing regional challenges.
To make a more sustainable impact in the region, either Harris or Trump must enlist the support of European, British, and Middle Eastern partners, and work collectively to build multilateral processes that can establish stronger foundations for regional stability.
Trump and Harris’ policies towards the conflict in the region also show their limited intentions to change course in the Middle East.
Vakil believes that the October 7 attacks shattered that vision, and the United States’ decision to reduce its priorities towards the region was clearly evident during the past twelve months, and while the Biden administration provided full political and military support to Israel, and there is not yet a direct regional war with Iran, the United States has not succeeded in Several areas, such as achieving a ceasefire agreement and securing the release Hostages Maintaining humanitarian relief on a regular basis and producing an action plan for the so-called “next day”.
Moreover, the interim agreement between the United States and Iran, which aims to prevent acceleration of the nuclear program in exchange for simple sanctions relief, demonstrated the limits of dividing issues when it comes to managing a range of files with… Tehran.
The policies of Trump and Harris towards the conflict in the region also show their limited intentions to change the course in the Middle East, and they both realize that politics in the Middle East, especially with regard to the issue Israel Palestine and Iran have become an arena for partisan political mines in the United States that may alienate voters.
Despite their different plans, with Trump tending to be more unilateral, they will continue the trend of reducing conflict management in favor of increasing responsibility by states in the region.
Will Trump make a difference?
Trump promised a tougher approach aimed at reducing conflicts and promoting American interests.
Regarding Iran, Trump made clear that he would return to a policy of maximum pressure on Iran, perhaps to reach a new agreement with Tehran or to restrict Iran further.
As president, he led his administration to withdraw from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Compact. Iranian nuclear.
Trump emphasized that this approach put economic pressure on Iran and reduced its ability to finance groups acting on its behalf.
His advisors also indicated that they would extend the maximum pressure campaign and provide full support to the Iranian opposition and activists.
However, without clear goals or a willingness to negotiate with Tehran to contain further nuclear developments, the result may be a new round of instability.
Trump has indicated that if he returns to the White House, he will end the war in Gaza immediately, but how he will do so remains unclear.
More broadly, it is likely to redouble efforts to strengthen normalization agreements between… Israel And Saudi Arabia, and is trying to bypass the Palestinian leadership, focusing on broader regional normalization.
What about Harris?
Despite its recent hardline rhetoric towards Iran, it is expected to strengthen Harris Current diplomatic efforts to calm and manage tensions with Tehran, rather than calling for “maximum pressure.”
Harris is likely to build on efforts to revive a new model that can contain Iran’s nuclear program.
It is expected to emphasize a strategy that combines engagement and pressure to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while confronting its regional activities.
Regarding Israel and Palestine, Harris strongly defended Israel’s security, but tried to take a more balanced position compared to Trump and Biden, by supporting Israel’s security and calling for negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians towards a two-state solution.
Unlike Biden, Harris strongly emphasized humanitarian issues in Gaza and the West Bank and condemned unilateral actions that undermine the peace process, such as expanding… Settlements.
“Both presidential candidates must recognize that regional stability in the Middle East can only be achieved through a combination of deterrence, diplomacy, multilateral engagement, and prioritizing partnerships,” Vakil concluded. “It has become clear over the past year that America alone is incapable of resolving conflicts.” Or provide solutions.