There is much speculation as to why Moscow did not see the Ukrainian offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk coming. One of them, which we reported here, was that Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov is said to have ignored intelligence warnings (read here). The New York Times, on the other hand, is now reporting that it may have been the FSB itself that did not take the threat seriously (Source here).
The FSB, the report says, downplayed the seriousness of the situation on the day of the advance, calling it an “armed provocation” and saying that Russian forces were working to push back Ukrainian soldiers. Experts therefore assumed that the secret service, despite its extensive network of agents and enormous budget, had not foreseen the invasion.
There were clear signs in advance of the offensiveRussian bloggers, citing residents on the Ukrainian side, have reported a massive build-up of the Ukrainian armed forces. “We are talking about many, many units that should have recognized something and failed,” said Andrei Soldatov, an author who has researched the Russian security services.
But the FSB is distracted by internal disputes, rivalries with other security agencies and a reluctance to deliver bad news to President Vladimir Putin. And so Kursk was not the first mishap of this kind; another example was the uprising of the Wagner mercenary group under Yevgeny Prigozhin.
There were no visible consequences for the secret service either then or now. Despite the failures, Putin cannot do without the FSB. “That is the lesson he learned from Stalin,” said Soldatov. “During a war, you cannot punish your authorities, because that could be even more dangerous for you.”
Putin had stated that an assessment of the mistakes made in the case of Kursk would take place once the situation in the Russian border region had stabilized. It is doubtful, however, whether we will actually find out what caused the Russians to be so surprised.
The most important news of the day:
- In view of the difficult situation at the front and massive Russian air strikes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj travelled to Ramstein, to personally lobby for more help at the meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group. “More weapons” are needed, he said. In addition, his army must also be allowed to use the long-range weapons supplied by the West to attack targets in Russia. More here.
- Russia is said to have lost 6,000 soldiers by death or injury during the month-long offensive by Ukrainian forces in the Russian Kursk region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced this at the meeting in Ramstein on Friday. More in our news blog.
- Russia reports the capture of another town in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. The armed forces have taken control of the village of Zhuravka, the Defense Ministry in Moscow reports.
- Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko has dismissed fears of power outages of up to 20 hours a day or even an impending blackout next winter. “If there are no (Russian) attacks that critically affect the energy system, we will get through the winter normally,” the minister said during a question time in parliament.
- EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has promised Ukraine further humanitarian aid for the coming winter. On Friday, she announced in the online service X a “new package of 40 million euros for repairs, electricity, heating and accommodation”.
- In response to US sanctions against its state broadcaster RT, Russia now wants to introduce nationwide restrictions on US media in return. There will “certainly” be measures to restrict the dissemination of information by US media, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
- Germany will supply Ukraine with twelve additional Panzerhaubitz 2000 tank howitzers worth 150 million euros. Six of the modern artillery guns will be delivered this year, and six more next year, announced Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) in Ramstein.
- US President Joe Biden will approve additional aid for Ukraine amounting to $250 million. This was announced by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the beginning of the meeting of the so-called Ramstein Group at the US base of the same name in Rhineland-Palatinate.
- At least one person was killed in Russian missile attacks in eastern Ukraine on Friday. At least 40 other people were injured in the attack in the city of Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Ukrainian Interior Ministry said.
- The advance of the Ukrainian armed forces into the western Russian region of Kursk is having an effect, according to their commander-in-chief. “Over the past six days, the enemy has not gained a single meter of ground in the direction of Pokrovsk. In other words, our strategy is working,” said Olexander Syrskyj.
- According to official information from Russia, the Ukrainian armed forces shelled the Russian border town of Shebekino three times this evening. The governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said on his Telegram channel that 15 private houses were damaged.
- Great Britain is supplying Ukraine with 650 air defence missiles. This was announced by the Ministry of Defense in London ahead of a meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group at the US Ramstein Air Base in Rhineland-Palatinate.
