Mr Schindler, in Lebanon Thousands of pagers explodedAccording to media reports, more than 2,000 people were injured and eight Hezbollah members were killed. The organization accuses Israel of hacking the pagers. Is this likely or could it have been a technical glitch?
Of course, it can happen that there are production errors and that batteries, for example, get too hot and explode. We know of signs of devices heating up from safety warnings on airplanes, for example. But it is extremely unlikely that thousands of devices exploded more or less simultaneously on the same day. It must have been an Israeli hack.
If it really had been the Israelis, what would be the aim of such an attack in an already tense situation?
Anyone who is responsible for the Hezbollah works must now be worried, that is the news. It is about uncertainty within the organization. A lot of Hezbollah members have been injured or killed. The pager model was one that Hezbollah has just acquired, we know that from media reports.
And: This is a total demonstration of power by the Israelis to tell all Hezbollah members, without using an air strike or a drone attack or carrying out targeted attacks on the leadership: We will get you anyway, even if you do not have an important function in the organization.
Many civilians were injured. If it was really the Israelis, did they accept civilian casualties?
If it was an Israeli hack, they knew how to detonate the pagers, but not who exactly was carrying them. Media reports said that Hezbollah had acquired these pagers, but they certainly did not know who within the organization had the devices. If it was an Israeli hack, then they probably accepted civilian casualties, yes.
How do you think Hezbollah will react?
Hezbollah will probably respond with a rocket attack and avoid a major confrontation. That would not be in their own interest, because they would know the Israeli response, which would be a counterattack. So far, Hezbollah seems to want to avoid a major confrontation with Israel.
Is the risk of a major war in the region increasing?
It is another escalation of the situation. For months now, the north has been narrowly avoiding a major conflict. This is a total disgrace for Hezbollah: They were unable to protect their own people. And you have to remember: the whole region is still waiting for the Iranian response to the death of the former Hamas leader. Ismail Haniya in Tehran.
Does the alleged Israeli attack make an Iranian attack more likely?
Hezbollah is a representative of Iran, the militia belongs to the so-called “Axis of Resistance”. However, I do not believe that Tehran will launch a major attack and start a major regional war. Tehran would only get directly involved if the very existence of Hezbollah was at risk.
This is not the case with this attack. In this respect, it is a different situation than with Haniya. However, Iran will not be tempted to launch an attack on the basis of this event – even if the Iranian ambassador was also injured, according to media reports.
